TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Zelezik vs Henryk Tkaczyk 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116116118––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:26 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 56.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 16–28 Henryk Tkaczyk Jacek Zelezik has won 16 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2656.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-28 in 44
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 12 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1579 vs Tkaczyk 1542
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 80% vs Tkaczyk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 90% vs Tkaczyk 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +4 · Tkaczyk +2
Zelezik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Tkaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 2.25 / Tkaczyk 1.571
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Tkaczyk)-7.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258602
Zelezik2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 80 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back26% 27 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Tkaczyk1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 419 of 603
Up 2–0, closes it93% 234 of 251
Up 1–0, closes it85% 321 of 377
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik25%1 of 4
AwayTkaczyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Zelezik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Zelezik3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Zelezik3Tkaczyk4n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5Zelezik0Tkaczyk3n = 3Tkaczyk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikTkaczykZ − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.040.0−8.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 752 vs 1034 / 151955.5%68.1%417 / 752 vs 1034 / 1519Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykZelezik 2.25/Tkaczyk 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 23:30J. Zelezik321211541H. Tkaczyk45101311113
WSep 23 · 19:10J. Zelezik3711411113H. Tkaczyk27511381
LSep 17 · 23:30J. Zelezik248970H. Tkaczyk331111113
LSep 11 · 01:55J. Zelezik247980H. Tkaczyk331111113
LSep 10 · 19:55J. Zelezik4212137552H. Tkaczyk5410111111113
WSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik3851111113H. Tkaczyk32117771
LSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik23511341H. Tkaczyk3811511113
LAug 26 · 22:35J. Zelezik3711621352H. Tkaczyk517111111113
LAug 26 · 15:00J. Zelezik49711147102H. Tkaczyk541181211123
LAug 17 · 22:50J. Zelezik145630H. Tkaczyk331111113
J. Zelezik10
WOct 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.83111111113Z. Nocun1.83139891WOct 7 · 17:45J. Zelezik1.531111113J. Michalik2.386680WOct 7 · 16:15J. Zelezik1.6111124113M. Lewczuk2.206101121WOct 7 · 15:00J. Zelezik1.9181111113A. Krezel1.80118981LOct 1 · 04:40M. Zielinski—117126113J. Zelezik—911101162WOct 1 · 03:55A. Staniczek4.05139971J. Zelezik1.18111111113WOct 1 · 01:55W. Stechly4.8561090J. Zelezik1.141112113WOct 1 · 01:10J. Michalik2.93134110J. Zelezik1.361511133WSep 30 · 23:30A. Fomin2.2077100J. Zelezik1.601111123WSep 30 · 22:40M. Zielinski—9980J. Zelezik—1111113
H. Tkaczyk10
WOct 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.501111811123A. Krezel2.50139119102WOct 7 · 18:10Z. Nocun2.1067111122H. Tkaczyk1.67111175113LOct 7 · 16:55J. Michalik2.631111113H. Tkaczyk1.448470WOct 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk2.63128651H. Tkaczyk1.44101111113WOct 7 · 05:10H. Tkaczyk—113711113M. Zielinski—91111542WOct 7 · 03:50H. Tkaczyk—161111123M. Brunner—1878101LOct 7 · 02:45H. Tkaczyk—111191192D. Bartosik—137114113WOct 7 · 00:45H. Tkaczyk—6111111113M. Machelski—11137552WOct 6 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk—11129113A. Fomin—6101161WOct 6 · 22:20M. Machelski4.8014671162H. Tkaczyk1.161211116113
Upcoming Matches
J. Zelezik
Oct 7 · 21:45J. Zelezik1.53J. Michalik2.38—Oct 7 · 22:35J. Zelezik1.67A. Krezel2.10—Oct 8 · 00:10J. Zelezik2.25H. Tkaczyk1.57—Oct 8 · 01:00J. Zelezik1.91Z. Nocun1.80—Oct 8 · 01:45J. Zelezik1.50M. Lewczuk2.50—Oct 8 · 17:55J. Zelezik—A. Krezel——Oct 8 · 19:30J. Zelezik—M. Machelski——Oct 8 · 20:45J. Zelezik—D. Molenda——Oct 8 · 21:55J. Zelezik—M. Wolny——Oct 8 · 23:05J. Zelezik—J. Michalik——
H. Tkaczyk
Oct 7 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk1.53M. Lewczuk2.38—Oct 7 · 22:55H. Tkaczyk1.40J. Michalik2.75—Oct 8 · 00:10H. Tkaczyk1.57J. Zelezik2.25—Oct 8 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk1.50A. Krezel2.50—Oct 8 · 02:35H. Tkaczyk1.67Z. Nocun2.10—Oct 8 · 15:25H. Tkaczyk—A. Skupinski——Oct 8 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk—A. Kubiak——Oct 8 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk—P. Gesiarz——Oct 8 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—Z. Nocun——Oct 8 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk—A. Zmijewski——
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