TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Drozd vs Martin Lorenc 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118117811115
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Martin Lorenc below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 1–4 Martin Lorenc Ales Drozd has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lorenc
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Lorenc
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1466 vs Lorenc 1448
Drozd
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 80% vs Lorenc 40%
Drozd
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 60% vs Lorenc 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd -1 · Lorenc -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lorenc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lorenc form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.909 / Lorenc 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lorenc)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256999
Drozd1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 26 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back32% 10 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Lorenc1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 27 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it65% 15 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDrozd1wins
AwayLorenc4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderLorenc leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozdn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayLorenc80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd0Lorenc5n = 5Lorenc took 5 of 5
S2Drozd3Lorenc2n = 5Drozd took 3 of 5
S3Drozd1Lorenc4n = 5Lorenc took 4 of 5
S4Drozd1Lorenc3n = 4Lorenc took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricDrozdLorencD − LBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match35.640.4−4.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdLorencBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 289 vs 74 / 16151.6%46%149 / 289 vs 74 / 161Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LorencDrozd 1.91/Lorenc 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 13 · 16:55A. Drozd411091481M. Lorenc46121112113
LAug 13 · 13:45A. Drozd4111118111M. Lorenc4313611133
LJun 25 · 13:20A. Drozd153570M. Lorenc331111113
LJun 25 · 10:40A. Drozd34511991M. Lorenc4111811113
WJun 6 · 10:10A. Drozd47711711113M. Lorenc3911811362
A. Drozd10
LOct 7 · 10:40A. Drozd1.44116711112J. Sindler2.63511118133WOct 7 · 09:40A. Drozd1.251351211113M. Kliment3.75111114972WSep 29 · 13:14A. Drozd1.7311116113O. Vaclahovsky2.00831161WSep 29 · 11:45A. Drozd1.40691111113M. Kliment2.7511118382WSep 29 · 10:45A. Drozd1.731111113J. Sindler2.008680WSep 29 · 09:45A. Drozd1.806111011113O. Vaclahovsky1.9111512682LSep 25 · 12:49M. Janik1.915111111113A. Drozd1.8011481392LSep 25 · 11:45A. Drozd1.67571151O. Skvor2.1011117113WSep 25 · 10:45A. Drozd2.0091115113M. Janik1.731181371LSep 25 · 09:45A. Drozd1.611221071T. Ogrocki2.20101112113
M. Lorenc10
WOct 7 · 11:10M. Kliment2.50911101162M. Lorenc1.50119129113LOct 7 · 10:10M. Lorenc1.5311911982J. Sindler2.38911411113LOct 4 · 13:15O. Skvor1.831381111113M. Lorenc1.83111181372WOct 4 · 12:10M. Lorenc1.7381111113J. Sindler2.00118671WOct 4 · 10:40O. Skvor1.83771281M. Lorenc1.83111110113LOct 4 · 10:10V. Molin2.1081111113M. Lorenc1.65117391LSep 29 · 17:13M. Lorenc1.61410190J. Sindler2.201112213WSep 29 · 16:10J. Sindler2.00812951M. Lorenc1.73111011113WSep 29 · 15:10M. Lorenc1.73611511113O. Skvor2.0011711682WSep 29 · 13:40M. Janik1.83881111162M. Lorenc1.83111189183
Upcoming Matches
A. Drozd
Nothing scheduled
M. Lorenc
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