TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Lorenc vs Jaroslav Sindler 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119911114911811
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Martin Lorenc at 64.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 7–5 Jaroslav Sindler Jaroslav Sindler has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5864.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lorenc
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Lorenc
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1462 vs Sindler 1352
Lorenc
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 40% vs Sindler 20%
Lorenc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 60% vs Sindler 20%
Lorenc
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc -1 · Sindler -4
Sindler
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Lorenc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.533 / Sindler 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lorenc)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256501
Lorenc1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 27 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it65% 15 of 23
Sindler2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 05)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 73 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back33% 21 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLorenc6wins
AwaySindler4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLorenc leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLorenc80%4 of 5
AwaySindler60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc5Sindler5n = 10split evenly
S2Lorenc4Sindler6n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S3Lorenc6Sindler4n = 10Lorenc took 6 of 10
S4Lorenc4Sindler4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLorencSindlerL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.937.0+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 160 vs 437 / 84646.3%51.7%74 / 160 vs 437 / 846Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.740.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.53/Sindler 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 12:10M. Lorenc4181111113J. Sindler32118671
LSep 29 · 17:13M. Lorenc33410190J. Sindler441112213
WSep 29 · 16:10M. Lorenc43111011113J. Sindler34812951
WSep 16 · 13:20M. Lorenc341111123J. Sindler1963100
LSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc3961112101J. Sindler4211514123
WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc4312911113J. Sindler331011571
LAug 21 · 12:48M. Lorenc24112651J. Sindler4071111113
WAug 21 · 12:10M. Lorenc5311101011113J. Sindler4491212652
LAug 10 · 13:23M. Lorenc33981151J. Sindler3811115113
WAug 10 · 11:45M. Lorenc461111112113J. Sindler4413881142
M. Lorenc10
LOct 7 · 12:40M. Lorenc1.28641191M. Kliment3.5011116113LOct 7 · 11:40A. Drozd1.91911118113M. Lorenc1.8011871152WOct 7 · 11:10M. Kliment2.50911101162M. Lorenc1.50119129113LOct 4 · 13:15O. Skvor1.831381111113M. Lorenc1.83111181372WOct 4 · 12:10M. Lorenc1.7381111113J. Sindler2.00118671WOct 4 · 10:40O. Skvor1.83771281M. Lorenc1.83111110113LOct 4 · 10:10V. Molin2.1081111113M. Lorenc1.65117391LSep 29 · 17:13M. Lorenc1.61410190J. Sindler2.201112213WSep 29 · 16:10J. Sindler2.00812951M. Lorenc1.73111011113WSep 29 · 15:10M. Lorenc1.73611511113O. Skvor2.0011711682
J. Sindler10
LOct 7 · 12:10J. Sindler1.2546100M. Kliment3.751111123WOct 7 · 10:40A. Drozd1.44116711112J. Sindler2.63511118133LOct 5 · 12:38L. Krupnik Jr2.101111123J. Sindler1.6775100LOct 5 · 11:40J. Sindler2.63111361172O. Skvor1.44515117113LOct 5 · 10:40J. Sindler1.5311118692L. Krupnik Jr2.38471111113LOct 5 · 09:40J. Sindler1.9191181282D. Stefek1.801191110113WOct 4 · 12:44V. Molin1.6711118882J. Sindler2.10541111113LOct 4 · 12:10M. Lorenc1.7381111113J. Sindler2.00118671WSep 29 · 17:13M. Lorenc1.61410190J. Sindler2.201112213LSep 29 · 16:10J. Sindler2.00812951M. Lorenc1.73111011113
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