TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Chalupa vs Marek Holub 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11513114111412––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched: 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 81 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Michal Chalupa at 63.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 50–38 Marek Holub Marek Holub has won 38 of their 88 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Chalupa beat Holub 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1263.9%Our read65.8%to break even at 1.52
short by 1.9pp65.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.52 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
50-38 in 88
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 12 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1687 vs Holub 1586
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 60% vs Holub 40%
Chalupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 50% vs Holub 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa -1 · Holub +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Chalupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.52 / Holub 2.35
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Chalupa)-1.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13256297
Chalupa1.52
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 122 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it87% 52 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it77% 85 of 111
Holub2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 79 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back18% 19 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa8wins
AwayHolub2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa88.9%8 of 9
AwayHolubn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa9Holub1n = 10Chalupa took 9 of 10
S2Chalupa7Holub3n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S3Chalupa5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S4Chalupa5Holub2n = 7Chalupa took 5 of 7
S5Chalupa2Holub2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaHolubC − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.934.8+4.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime394 / 740 vs 165 / 35653.2%46.4%394 / 740 vs 165 / 356Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.52/Holub 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 21:30M. Chalupa4211134143M. Holub3951111121
WOct 6 · 18:30M. Chalupa3511211113M. Holub29411681
WOct 2 · 21:00M. Chalupa48118711113M. Holub4341111982
WOct 2 · 18:00M. Chalupa341211113M. Holub2210660
LSep 28 · 18:00M. Chalupa3811124652M. Holub518101111113
WSep 17 · 20:00M. Chalupa4111811113M. Holub31611951
WSep 7 · 20:30M. Chalupa331111113M. Holub207580
WSep 3 · 20:00M. Chalupa331111113M. Holub165470
LSep 2 · 21:30M. Chalupa3761121172M. Holub50118119113
WSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa48111268113M. Holub47810111172
M. Chalupa10
LOct 6 · 20:00D. Szotek1.83771111113M. Chalupa1.8311119992WOct 6 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.75761141M. Chalupa1.4011112113WOct 6 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711211113M. Holub2.25411681WOct 2 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.53118711113M. Holub2.3841111982LOct 2 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73178111092L. Kern2.001511812113LOct 2 · 19:30T. Kypr2.1011912113M. Chalupa1.677111051WOct 2 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.571211113M. Holub2.2510660LOct 1 · 21:06M. Chalupa2.00711118102D. Szotek1.73115511123WOct 1 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.831210711113D. Szotek1.83101211732LOct 1 · 19:00M. Chalupa1.83166841R. Hudeczek1.83141111113
M. Holub10
WOct 6 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.8011111221M. Holub1.9191314113WOct 6 · 19:30M. Holub2.101391311113D. Szotek1.67111115762LOct 6 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711211113M. Holub2.25411681LOct 2 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.53118711113M. Holub2.3841111982LOct 2 · 20:30M. Holub2.209740T. Kypr1.611111113LOct 2 · 19:00M. Holub2.2591191152L. Kern1.57113116113LOct 2 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.571211113M. Holub2.2510660WSep 30 · 17:29M. Holub1.91111811153J. Simecek1.808204131WSep 30 · 16:00M. Holub1.80911119133J. Holubec1.91119811112WSep 30 · 15:30J. Simecek1.8011321142M. Holub1.91911114113
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