TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Storozhenko vs Mykhailo Potapov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811116611117117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Storozhenko above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 61.2%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Storozhenko 22–12 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 12 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2561.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-12 in 34
Storozhenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Storozhenko 1586 vs Potapov 1529
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Storozhenko 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Storozhenko 60% vs Potapov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Storozhenko +2 · Potapov -3
Potapov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Storozhenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStorozhenko 1.533 / Potapov 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Storozhenko)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256233
Storozhenko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 184 of 326
Up 2–0, closes it89% 64 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it71% 117 of 166
Potapov2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 59 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStorozhenko5wins
AwayPotapov5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStorozhenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayPotapov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Storozhenko6Potapov4n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S2Storozhenko6Potapov4n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S3Storozhenko4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S4Storozhenko5Potapov4n = 9Storozhenko took 5 of 9
S5Storozhenko1Potapov2n = 3Potapov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStorozhenkoPotapovS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.5+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStorozhenkoPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 576 vs 212 / 45052.4%47.1%302 / 576 vs 212 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoStorozhenko 1.53/Potapov 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 14:35O. Storozhenko4271181152M. Potapov48118117113
WSep 26 · 10:55O. Storozhenko351111133M. Potapov2678110
LSep 25 · 13:55O. Storozhenko30511771M. Potapov3811511113
WSep 24 · 12:25O. Storozhenko46911114113M. Potapov4411791162
LSep 22 · 20:15O. Storozhenko30114871M. Potapov4181111113
WSep 21 · 13:55O. Storozhenko4011126113M. Potapov355101191
WSep 11 · 21:45O. Storozhenko3811511113M. Potapov34711971
LSep 9 · 05:05O. Storozhenko34118961M. Potapov4181111113
WSep 8 · 12:35O. Storozhenko3911611113M. Potapov27411571
LSep 7 · 23:45O. Storozhenko4381151182M. Potapov41114114113
O. Storozhenko10
WOct 7 · 09:05O. Storozhenko1.8311117113Y. Tebenko1.83811191WOct 7 · 07:35O. Storozhenko1.6741111113I. Pytsko2.10116861LOct 7 · 06:05O. Storozhenko1.6171180I. Fashchevskyi2.201113113LOct 7 · 04:35O. Storozhenko1.67101191172D. Maltsev2.10129119113LOct 6 · 18:35O. Storozhenko1.67841151I. Pytsko2.1011119113WOct 6 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi2.5011119992O. Storozhenko1.50581111113WOct 6 · 15:35O. Storozhenko1.61711611113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011911742LOct 6 · 14:35M. Potapov2.63118117113O. Storozhenko1.4471181152WOct 6 · 13:05O. Storozhenko1.6171111113D. Maltsev2.20112761WOct 4 · 18:35R. Novak1.576370O. Storozhenko2.251111113
M. Potapov10
LOct 7 · 09:35M. Potapov2.207111191I. Pytsko1.6111138113LOct 7 · 08:35M. Potapov2.105970D. Maltsev1.671111113LOct 7 · 07:05M. Potapov1.83131111192Y. Tebenko1.83159115113WOct 7 · 05:05M. Potapov1.8012117113I. Fashchevskyi1.911071151WOct 6 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.2071111772M. Potapov1.61118611113WOct 6 · 17:05M. Potapov2.101151111113D. Maltsev1.6761171392WOct 6 · 16:05M. Potapov2.101118413113I. Pytsko1.67616111582WOct 6 · 14:35M. Potapov2.63118117113O. Storozhenko1.4471181152LOct 6 · 12:35M. Potapov1.8061110111I. Fashchevskyi1.9111612133LSep 29 · 03:00M. Potapov2.10138961D. Maltsev1.67111111113
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