TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Machelski vs Andriej Fomin 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611611––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
611611611––––
H2H Michal Machelski 23–19 Andriej Fomin Andriej Fomin has won 19 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5069.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-19 in 42
Machelski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1248 vs Fomin 1491
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 242 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 20% vs Fomin 60%
Fomin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 20% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -2 · Fomin +3
Fomin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Fomin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.75 / Fomin 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Fomin)-2.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13255870
Machelski2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 121 of 361
Down 0–1, comes back20% 42 of 208
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 121
Fomin1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 304 of 422
Up 2–0, closes it98% 168 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it90% 234 of 261
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski4wins
AwayFomin6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski60%3 of 5
AwayFomin80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S2Machelski3Fomin7n = 10Fomin took 7 of 10
S3Machelski4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S4Machelski3Fomin6n = 9Fomin took 6 of 9
S5Machelski3Fomin1n = 4Machelski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiFominM − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.245.1−6.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 1079 vs 581 / 98537%59%399 / 1079 vs 581 / 985Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FominMachelski 2.75/Fomin 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 06:25M. Machelski359101151A. Fomin4311129113
WSep 26 · 22:25M. Machelski50111277133A. Fomin507101111112
LSep 26 · 20:00M. Machelski27611371A. Fomin4011711113
WSep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski50651513113A. Fomin541111131182
LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski31851171A. Fomin3611113113
LAug 27 · 01:30M. Machelski4214711101A. Fomin48121113123
WAug 26 · 19:30M. Machelski46111152173A. Fomin54891111152
LJul 29 · 22:55M. Machelski2310670A. Fomin341211113
LJul 29 · 16:55M. Machelski3411441142A. Fomin48911116113
WJul 12 · 00:00M. Machelski4411513153A. Fomin4491111131
M. Machelski10
LOct 6 · 18:45M. Brunner1.6021111113M. Machelski2.20118461LOct 6 · 17:55M. Machelski3.459770M. Zielinski1.261111113WOct 6 · 02:45M. Machelski2.051111113A. Staniczek1.663970LOct 6 · 01:10M. Machelski3.257111151A. Zmijewski1.3011133113LOct 6 · 00:00M. Machelski2.951112891J. Michalik1.36131011113WOct 5 · 22:25M. Machelski1.79115911113J. Cyndera1.9371111982LOct 5 · 21:10M. Machelski2.70961161A. Kubiak1.4011118113LOct 1 · 02:10M. Machelski2.10111111492Z. Nocun1.67136511113LOct 1 · 00:35M. Lewczuk1.6781111123M. Machelski2.101185101LSep 30 · 23:45H. Tkaczyk1.50111112113M. Machelski2.50591481
A. Fomin10
WOct 6 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.627111111132A. Fomin2.18117713153WOct 6 · 17:30M. Brunner2.75881131A. Fomin1.4011115113WOct 4 · 02:35D. Pyrek2.5065130A. Fomin1.501111153LOct 4 · 01:25A. Fomin1.838111491M. Karpiuk1.8311616113LOct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.2091211133A. Fomin1.6111109111WOct 3 · 22:55D. Maszczynski5.006660A. Fomin1.141111113WOct 3 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.7571170A. Fomin1.401113113LOct 3 · 20:30G. Mucha2.631111113A. Fomin1.448380WOct 3 · 19:20A. Fomin1.83117119113M. Karpiuk1.8361161192WOct 3 · 18:10D. Pyrek2.2551111892A. Fomin1.57117911113
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