TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Machelski vs Adam Staniczek 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119117––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:27 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Staniczek to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
113119117––––
H2H Michal Machelski 26–55 Adam Staniczek Michal Machelski has won 26 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:2757.2%Our read60.2%to break even at 1.66
short by 3.0pp60.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.66 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Staniczek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-55 in 81
Staniczek
Wrong
gap of 29 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1265 vs Staniczek 1255
Machelski
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 20% vs Staniczek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 20% vs Staniczek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -2 · Staniczek -4
Staniczek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Staniczek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.05 / Staniczek 1.66
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Staniczek)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13244216
Machelski2.05
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 120 of 357
Down 0–1, comes back21% 42 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 119
Staniczek1.66
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite76% won 96 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it98% 54 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it89% 73 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski2wins
AwayStaniczek8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaniczek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStaniczek100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski2Staniczek8n = 10Staniczek took 8 of 10
S2Machelski4Staniczek6n = 10Staniczek took 6 of 10
S3Machelski2Staniczek8n = 10Staniczek took 8 of 10
S4Machelski1Staniczek3n = 4Staniczek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiStaniczekM − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match28.837.1−8.3per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 1081 vs 370 / 102236.9%36.2%399 / 1081 vs 370 / 1022Avg sets wonper match1.71.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.534.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaniczekMachelski 2.05/Staniczek 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.2%
Staniczek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 23:10M. Machelski28611471A. Staniczek4011711113
LSep 22 · 02:45M. Machelski203890A. Staniczek331111113
LSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski34512891A. Staniczek43111011113
LSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski2216150A. Staniczek401811113
LAug 31 · 23:10M. Machelski155640A. Staniczek331111113
WAug 31 · 15:50M. Machelski341211113A. Staniczek2210570
LAug 10 · 23:10M. Machelski311010110A. Staniczek371212133
LAug 10 · 01:00M. Machelski3473111122A. Staniczek48111196113
LAug 9 · 18:55M. Machelski226880A. Staniczek331111113
WJul 29 · 23:45M. Machelski48111187113A. Staniczek4279111142
M. Machelski10
LOct 6 · 01:10M. Machelski3.257111151A. Zmijewski1.3011133113LOct 6 · 00:00M. Machelski2.951112891J. Michalik1.36131011113WOct 5 · 22:25M. Machelski1.79115911113J. Cyndera1.9371111982LOct 5 · 21:10M. Machelski2.70961161A. Kubiak1.4011118113LOct 1 · 02:10M. Machelski2.10111111492Z. Nocun1.67136511113LOct 1 · 00:35M. Lewczuk1.6781111123M. Machelski2.101185101LSep 30 · 23:45H. Tkaczyk1.50111112113M. Machelski2.50591481LSep 30 · 22:55M. Machelski2.25711991J. Skorupa1.5711911113WSep 30 · 21:45M. Machelski2.20715912173G. Mucha1.6111131110152LSep 30 · 20:05M. Machelski2.00111171032Z. Nocun1.73991112113
A. Staniczek10
LOct 6 · 01:35A. Staniczek3.2812380A. Kubiak1.241411113LOct 6 · 00:25A. Zmijewski1.331111113A. Staniczek3.105650LOct 5 · 23:10J. Michalik1.4611611133A. Staniczek2.502116111LOct 5 · 21:35J. Cyndera1.16117123113A. Staniczek4.40311101182WOct 5 · 20:45A. Zmijewski1.4011991192A. Staniczek2.76411113113LOct 5 · 19:35A. Staniczek4.00913861A. Kubiak1.22111111113WOct 5 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.70611111462A. Staniczek1.411181312113LOct 5 · 17:10P. Gesiarz1.421111113A. Staniczek2.609670LOct 5 · 15:35J. Cyndera1.251111113A. Staniczek3.407420LOct 5 · 02:35J. Michalik1.50121111113A. Staniczek2.50147971
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