TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Mandrysz vs Lukas Krupnik Jr 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811118111––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:08 and never touched: 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 69 set 4, 1-11 · our read held Filip Mandrysz at 55.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 13–13 Lukas Krupnik Jr Dead even across their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Mandrysz beat Krupnik Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0855.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mandrysz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-13 in 26
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1436 vs Krupnik Jr 1379
Mandrysz
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 100% vs Krupnik Jr 60%
Mandrysz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 70% vs Krupnik Jr 50%
Mandrysz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz +6 · Krupnik Jr +1
Mandrysz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Mandrysz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.666 / Krupnik Jr 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Mandrysz)-5.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13255257
Mandrysz1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite58% won 77 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it74% 51 of 69
Krupnik Jr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 88 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back33% 28 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMandrysz7wins
AwayKrupnik Jr3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz66.7%4 of 6
AwayKrupnik Jr25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz6Krupnik Jr4n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S2Mandrysz4Krupnik Jr6n = 10Krupnik Jr took 6 of 10
S3Mandrysz8Krupnik Jr2n = 10Mandrysz took 8 of 10
S4Mandrysz5Krupnik Jr4n = 9Mandrysz took 5 of 9
S5Mandrysz3Krupnik Jr2n = 5Mandrysz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMandryszKrupnik JrM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.040.7+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszKrupnik JrBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 472 vs 260 / 49151.3%53%242 / 472 vs 260 / 491Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.67/Krupnik Jr 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krupnik Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 15:10F. Mandrysz4511812143L. Krupnik Jr4181110121
WSep 25 · 15:40F. Mandrysz511151112123L. Krupnik Jr53911914102
LSep 22 · 16:10F. Mandrysz34871181L. Krupnik Jr4111118113
WSep 20 · 11:15F. Mandrysz55139139113L. Krupnik Jr491111111152
WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz331111113L. Krupnik Jr228860
WSep 5 · 06:40F. Mandrysz50811119113L. Krupnik Jr3711701182
LSep 3 · 16:15F. Mandrysz3811391142L. Krupnik Jr46711116113
WAug 8 · 14:10F. Mandrysz4281112113L. Krupnik Jr351151091
WJul 29 · 14:15F. Mandrysz44111111113L. Krupnik Jr34136961
LJul 28 · 14:10F. Mandrysz481111511102L. Krupnik Jr49613117123
F. Mandrysz10
WOct 6 · 15:40D. Stefek1.732880F. Mandrysz2.001111113WOct 6 · 15:10L. Krupnik Jr1.9181110121F. Mandrysz1.8011812143WOct 6 · 14:10F. Mandrysz1.7381111123P. Sturma2.001157101WOct 3 · 09:15L. Stempak2.0091113101F. Mandrysz1.7311515123WOct 3 · 07:40F. Mandrysz1.8043L. Snr1.9102WOct 3 · 06:40F. Mandrysz1.7311711113J. Lysek2.00711781LOct 3 · 05:40F. Mandrysz1.57981181L. Stempak2.2511115113LOct 2 · 17:10F. Mandrysz9.10541281P. Sturma1.03111110113LOct 2 · 15:40F. Mandrysz2.6391591172J. Jnr1.441113116113WOct 2 · 14:40F. Mandrysz1.6151411123P. Sturma2.2011129101
L. Krupnik Jr10
WOct 6 · 16:10P. Sturma2.10118781L. Krupnik Jr1.6771111113LOct 6 · 15:10L. Krupnik Jr1.9181110121F. Mandrysz1.8011812143WOct 6 · 13:40D. Stefek1.5011751182L. Krupnik Jr2.50711115113WOct 5 · 12:38L. Krupnik Jr2.101111123J. Sindler1.6775100LOct 5 · 12:10L. Krupnik Jr2.25971161D. Stefek1.5711116113WOct 5 · 10:40J. Sindler1.5311118692L. Krupnik Jr2.38471111113LOct 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.46111114113L. Krupnik Jr2.50751651LOct 5 · 08:49A. Strelec1.6171111113L. Krupnik Jr2.20118761WOct 5 · 08:10A. Strelec1.4491111772L. Krupnik Jr2.63116511113LOct 5 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.255880O. Skvor1.571111113
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