TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Muller vs Petr Chlumsky 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511911711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Muller to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Radek Muller at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 8–2 Petr Chlumsky Petr Chlumsky has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5454.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Muller
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Muller
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1424 vs Chlumsky 1524
Chlumsky
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 40% vs Chlumsky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 40% vs Chlumsky 60%
Chlumsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -2 · Chlumsky -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Muller) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.727 / Chlumsky 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Muller)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251651
Muller1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 33 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Chlumsky2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 7 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller8wins
AwayChlumsky2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMuller leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller87.5%7 of 8
AwayChlumskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller8Chlumsky2n = 10Muller took 8 of 10
S2Muller6Chlumsky4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S3Muller6Chlumsky4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S4Muller5Chlumsky2n = 7Muller took 5 of 7
S5Muller2Chlumsky1n = 3Muller took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerChlumskyM − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.634.5+5.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 334 vs 145 / 31449.4%46.2%165 / 334 vs 145 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMuller 1.73/Chlumsky 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chlumsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 06:55R. Muller32115971P. Chlumsky4291111113
WSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller331111113P. Chlumsky168530
WJul 27 · 11:25R. Muller331111113P. Chlumsky197930
WJun 27 · 18:10R. Muller3911611113P. Chlumsky32311991
LJun 27 · 15:55R. Muller481011512102P. Chlumsky511261110123
WFeb 4 · 11:00R. Muller331111113P. Chlumsky228590
WFeb 4 · 08:20R. Muller3811511113P. Chlumsky31711491
WJan 14 · 09:55R. Muller3813311113P. Chlumsky371111961
WJan 3 · 16:55R. Muller541116511113P. Chlumsky50131411662
WJan 1 · 17:10R. Muller48111178113P. Chlumsky4588111172
R. Muller10
LOct 6 · 08:55R. Muller2.0061161182F. Balcar1.73116119113WOct 6 · 07:55R. Muller2.2017118133M. Filipek1.6115911111LSep 29 · 22:03R. Muller1.6151171192J. Cousin2.20113118113LSep 29 · 21:25J. Cousin2.50918511123R. Muller1.501116115102WSep 29 · 20:25R. Muller1.50116711113T. Rein2.5081111392LSep 29 · 18:55B. Budik1.5781111113R. Muller2.25119891WSep 27 · 17:25R. Muller1.4411116143T. Rein2.637811121WSep 27 · 16:50T. Rein2.3811612372R. Muller1.536111011113LSep 27 · 15:50R. Muller1.67611101182J. Sebl2.10116128113LSep 27 · 14:20J. Dohnal2.001111113R. Muller1.739990
P. Chlumsky10
WOct 6 · 09:25M. Filipek2.251411211132P. Chlumsky1.571261113153WOct 6 · 08:25P. Chlumsky2.10711311123F. Balcar1.67119118102LOct 5 · 10:03P. Chlumsky1.444911121F. Marat2.6311119143LOct 5 · 09:25A. Kral2.25101511113P. Chlumsky1.571213781WOct 5 · 08:25P. Chlumsky1.61119811113M. Filipek2.2031111382WOct 5 · 06:55F. Marat2.501011491P. Chlumsky1.5012711113LOct 3 · 10:30Z. Zahradka1.461111113P. Chlumsky2.558760WOct 3 · 08:55A. Kral2.1071151292P. Chlumsky1.671151110113WOct 3 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.8310990P. Chlumsky1.831211113LOct 3 · 07:25P. Chlumsky2.6390Z. Zahradka1.44111
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