TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Sydorenko vs Denys Boltenkov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210101213111412––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:56 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltenkov to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Sydorenko above · Denys Boltenkov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 94 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Denys Boltenkov at 57.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Sydorenko 4–4 Denys Boltenkov Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5657.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Boltenkov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sydorenko 1326 vs Boltenkov 1351
Boltenkov
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sydorenko 80% vs Boltenkov 60%
Sydorenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sydorenko 40% vs Boltenkov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sydorenko +2 · Boltenkov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Boltenkov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sydorenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSydorenko 2.20 / Boltenkov 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Boltenkov)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251612
Sydorenko2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 85 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back24% 32 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 84
Boltenkov1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 23 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSydorenko4wins
AwayBoltenkov4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSydorenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBoltenkov57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sydorenko1Boltenkov7n = 8Boltenkov took 7 of 8
S2Sydorenko6Boltenkov2n = 8Sydorenko took 6 of 8
S3Sydorenko6Boltenkov2n = 8Sydorenko took 6 of 8
S4Sydorenko2Boltenkov5n = 7Boltenkov took 5 of 7
S5Sydorenko2Boltenkov1n = 3Sydorenko took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricSydorenkoBoltenkovS − BBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match39.440.1−0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSydorenkoBoltenkovBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 574 vs 31 / 6143.9%50.8%252 / 574 vs 31 / 61Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BoltenkovSydorenko 2.20/Boltenkov 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Boltenkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sydorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 1 · 14:55V. Sydorenko45311119113D. Boltenkov4411851192
WSep 25 · 18:35V. Sydorenko47131112113D. Boltenkov391571071
LSep 24 · 14:35V. Sydorenko34991151D. Boltenkov3911116113
WSep 17 · 18:05V. Sydorenko331111113D. Boltenkov259790
LSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko32713481D. Boltenkov44111111113
LAug 27 · 18:55V. Sydorenko32841191D. Boltenkov4211119113
WAug 26 · 14:05V. Sydorenko47511119113D. Boltenkov4111831182
LAug 21 · 15:35V. Sydorenko4571171282D. Boltenkov471141110113
V. Sydorenko10
WOct 6 · 12:35V. Sydorenko1.611111123A. Azarov2.2082100WOct 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko1.801111113Y. Bielokon1.916640LOct 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko1.67810120V. Husiev2.101112143WOct 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.101111123V. Chumak1.6768100WOct 1 · 14:55V. Sydorenko2.20311119113D. Boltenkov1.6111851192LOct 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko2.50813811102V. Slabyshev1.501111119123LSep 29 · 19:05V. Sharpai1.251110119113V. Sydorenko3.7551281142LSep 29 · 18:05I. Yelfimov1.501112113V. Sydorenko2.5091060LSep 29 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.441111133V. Sydorenko2.6359110LSep 29 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.501111133V. Sydorenko2.5058110
D. Boltenkov10
WOct 6 · 13:05R. Serhyenko3.751113121272D. Boltenkov1.2513111014113WOct 1 · 20:25V. Chumak1.738101161D. Boltenkov2.0011125113LOct 1 · 18:55D. Boltenkov3.251581191V. Slabyshev1.33131113113WOct 1 · 16:55V. Husiev2.5011650D. Boltenkov1.501311113LOct 1 · 14:55V. Sydorenko2.20311119113D. Boltenkov1.6111851192WOct 1 · 13:55Y. Bielokon2.10113751D. Boltenkov1.6781111113LSep 30 · 19:35V. Chumak1.80961211113D. Boltenkov1.91111110952LSep 30 · 18:05D. Boltenkov2.75771751V. Slabyshev1.40111115113LSep 30 · 16:05A. Yakovenko1.611111113D. Boltenkov2.207980WSep 30 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.4091470D. Boltenkov2.751116113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.