TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Boltenkov vs Artem Azarov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11571113111210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:56 and never touched: 79.0% is still 79.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltenkov to win
79.0%
79.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Boltenkov above · Artem Azarov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 80 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Denys Boltenkov at 79.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Denys Boltenkov 6–3 Artem Azarov Artem Azarov has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5679.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 1.0pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Boltenkov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Boltenkov
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltenkov 1349 vs Azarov 1224
Boltenkov
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltenkov 60% vs Azarov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltenkov 50% vs Azarov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltenkov +1 · Azarov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Boltenkov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Azarov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltenkov 1.25 / Azarov 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Boltenkov)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251230
Boltenkov1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 23 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Azarov3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 13 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBoltenkov6wins
AwayAzarov3wins
2 of 9 to a deciderBoltenkov leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltenkov85.7%6 of 7
AwayAzarovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltenkov7Azarov2n = 9Boltenkov took 7 of 9
S2Boltenkov8Azarov1n = 9Boltenkov took 8 of 9
S3Boltenkov6Azarov3n = 9Boltenkov took 6 of 9
S4Boltenkov2Azarov2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home556%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricBoltenkovAzarovB − ABasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match37.229.6+7.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltenkovAzarovBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 63 vs 24 / 6650.8%36.4%32 / 63 vs 24 / 66Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BoltenkovBoltenkov 1.25/Azarov 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Boltenkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Boltenkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 25 · 12:35D. Boltenkov341111123A. Azarov2468100
WSep 24 · 15:35D. Boltenkov331111113A. Azarov112630
LSep 18 · 19:05D. Boltenkov421661191A. Azarov4618116113
WSep 17 · 12:35D. Boltenkov371511113A. Azarov2713590
LSep 10 · 20:25D. Boltenkov4381161172A. Azarov42115114113
LSep 3 · 14:05D. Boltenkov4011118642A. Azarov46941111113
WSep 2 · 18:55D. Boltenkov331111113A. Azarov198560
WAug 27 · 14:55D. Boltenkov331111113A. Azarov155820
WAug 26 · 18:35D. Boltenkov4011117113A. Azarov36991171
D. Boltenkov10
LOct 6 · 19:35V. Slabyshev1.3311116113D. Boltenkov3.25981171WOct 6 · 16:05Y. Bielokon2.388870D. Boltenkov1.531111113LOct 6 · 14:05V. Sydorenko2.20121013143D. Boltenkov1.61101211121WOct 6 · 13:05R. Serhyenko3.751113121272D. Boltenkov1.2513111014113WOct 1 · 20:25V. Chumak1.738101161D. Boltenkov2.0011125113LOct 1 · 18:55D. Boltenkov3.251581191V. Slabyshev1.33131113113WOct 1 · 16:55V. Husiev2.5011650D. Boltenkov1.501311113LOct 1 · 14:55V. Sydorenko2.20311119113D. Boltenkov1.6111851192WOct 1 · 13:55Y. Bielokon2.10113751D. Boltenkov1.6781111113LSep 30 · 19:35V. Chumak1.80961211113D. Boltenkov1.91111110952
A. Azarov10
WOct 6 · 19:05Y. Bielokon1.839970A. Azarov1.831111113WOct 6 · 16:35R. Serhyenko1.61101070A. Azarov2.201212113LOct 6 · 14:35V. Slabyshev1.2591111113A. Azarov3.75117931LOct 6 · 12:35V. Sydorenko1.611111123A. Azarov2.2082100WOct 5 · 19:35A. Azarov1.4491111113H. Buianover2.63112831WOct 5 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.387114161A. Azarov1.5311911183WOct 5 · 15:35M. Karelov2.251011111012A. Azarov1.57128412113LOct 5 · 14:35A. Azarov2.00961141R. Serhyenko1.7311119113LOct 5 · 13:35V. Reva1.8311118143A. Azarov1.837611121WOct 1 · 19:35H. Buianover2.25101111992A. Azarov1.57128411113
Upcoming Matches
D. Boltenkov
A. Azarov
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