TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matus Zelinka vs David Gasparovic 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111161210811811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:36 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Gasparovic to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · David Gasparovic below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 · our read held David Gasparovic at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 5–2 David Gasparovic David Gasparovic has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3654.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gasparovic
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Zelinka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1766 vs Gasparovic 1758
Zelinka
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 40% vs Gasparovic 60%
Gasparovic
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 60% vs Gasparovic 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka +1 · Gasparovic +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gasparovic) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 2.00 / Gasparovic 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gasparovic)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251479
Zelinka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 24 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back36% 10 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Gasparovic1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 53 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 37 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZelinka5wins
AwayGasparovic2wins
5 of 7 to a deciderZelinka leads 5–2, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka75%3 of 4
AwayGasparovic33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka4Gasparovic3n = 7Zelinka took 4 of 7
S2Zelinka5Gasparovic2n = 7Zelinka took 5 of 7
S3Zelinka3Gasparovic4n = 7Gasparovic took 4 of 7
S4Zelinka4Gasparovic3n = 7Zelinka took 4 of 7
S5Zelinka3Gasparovic2n = 5Zelinka took 3 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricZelinkaGasparovicZ − GBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match47.742.9+4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaGasparovicBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 412 vs 115 / 19453.6%59.3%221 / 412 vs 115 / 194Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicZelinka 2.00/Gasparovic 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gasparovic · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gasparovic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 4 · 15:15M. Zelinka4111861152D. Gasparovic45711115113
WSep 28 · 12:50M. Zelinka4411126153D. Gasparovic3951011131
WSep 28 · 10:15M. Zelinka46101111143D. Gasparovic371276121
WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka551171312123D. Gasparovic559111114102
LAug 28 · 13:15M. Zelinka43311131152D. Gasparovic49115157113
WApr 19 · 07:15M. Zelinka511111612113D. Gasparovic3941111492
WJan 16 · 19:45M. Zelinka541211119113D. Gasparovic3614421152
M. Zelinka10
WOct 6 · 19:15V. Burylov1.83116111072M. Zelinka1.83411912113WOct 6 · 17:45M. Zelinka1.9191111113J. Chalupa1.80117781LOct 4 · 16:14V. Burylov2.101111107113M. Zelinka1.6768121142LOct 4 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.83711115113M. Zelinka1.8311861152WOct 4 · 14:45M. Zelinka1.9111119123V. Burylov1.806711101LOct 4 · 13:45M. Zelinka1.731189121M. Makara2.0031111143WSep 28 · 12:50M. Zelinka1.8311126153D. Gasparovic1.8351011131WSep 28 · 11:45M. Zelinka1.8311811113J. Krames Sr1.83811791WSep 28 · 10:15D. Gasparovic1.801276121M. Zelinka1.91101111143WSep 28 · 09:45L. Veigl2.3812101181M. Zelinka1.5314129113
D. Gasparovic10
WOct 6 · 19:45J. Chalupa1.837370D. Gasparovic1.831111113WOct 6 · 17:15V. Burylov1.91118471D. Gasparovic1.8091111113LOct 4 · 16:44M. Makara2.751171110113D. Gasparovic1.4071191282WOct 4 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.83711115113M. Zelinka1.8311861152WOct 4 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.44141311113M. Makara2.631215471LOct 4 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.8313101091V. Burylov1.83111212113LSep 28 · 12:50M. Zelinka1.8311126153D. Gasparovic1.8351011131WSep 28 · 11:15D. Gasparovic1.30591111113L. Veigl3.4011119992LSep 28 · 10:15D. Gasparovic1.801276121M. Zelinka1.91101111143WSep 28 · 09:15D. Gasparovic1.731111113J. Krames Sr2.007880
Upcoming Matches
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