TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Zhurba vs Oleksandr Shkurupii 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
14128111171113117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:10 and never touched: 79.0% is still 79.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
79.0%
79.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhurba above · Oleksandr Shkurupii below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 105 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 79.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhurba 156–74 Oleksandr Shkurupii Oleksandr Shkurupii has won 74 of their 230 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1079.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 1.0pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Zhurba
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
156-74 in 230
Zhurba
Correct
gap of 82 in 230, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhurba 1953 vs Shkurupii 1703
Zhurba
Correct
both rated, 250 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhurba 60% vs Shkurupii 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhurba 70% vs Shkurupii 50%
Zhurba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhurba +2 · Shkurupii -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Zhurba) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shkurupii form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhurba 1.25 / Shkurupii 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Zhurba)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251106
Zhurba1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 04)
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite72% won 152 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it97% 91 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it87% 116 of 134
Shkurupii3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 27 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back7% 4 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhurba8wins
AwayShkurupii2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZhurba leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhurba88.9%8 of 9
AwayShkurupiin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhurba9Shkurupii1n = 10Zhurba took 9 of 10
S2Zhurba7Shkurupii3n = 10Zhurba took 7 of 10
S3Zhurba7Shkurupii2n = 9Zhurba took 7 of 9
S4Zhurba3Shkurupii1n = 4Zhurba took 3 of 4
S5Zhurba1Shkurupii2n = 3Shkurupii took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhurbaShkurupiiZ − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.128.9+10.2per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhurbaShkurupiiBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 685 vs 338 / 69766%48.5%452 / 685 vs 338 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaZhurba 1.25/Shkurupii 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zhurba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 6 · 12:30O. Zhurba551481111113O. Shkurupii50121171372
LOct 4 · 08:00O. Zhurba4411681182O. Shkurupii40511112113
WOct 4 · 07:00O. Zhurba331111113O. Shkurupii235990
WOct 3 · 12:00O. Zhurba331111113O. Shkurupii259790
LSep 13 · 10:00O. Zhurba48109111172O. Shkurupii45121165113
WSep 13 · 05:00O. Zhurba4011117113O. Shkurupii26451161
WSep 12 · 14:00O. Zhurba331111113O. Shkurupii186660
WAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba331111113O. Shkurupii165380
WAug 30 · 05:00O. Zhurba331111113O. Shkurupii176560
O. Zhurba10
WOct 6 · 14:30O. Zhurba1.081111133O. Belskyi7.0077110WOct 4 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.509380WOct 4 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.4411126143O. Bondarchuk2.6391011121LOct 4 · 08:00O. Shkurupii3.50511112113O. Zhurba1.2811681182WOct 4 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113O. Shkurupii3.505990LOct 4 · 05:30O. Bondarchuk2.6311115113O. Zhurba1.44891191WOct 4 · 05:00D. Neborak4.33126111472O. Zhurba1.201411812113WOct 3 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.507380O. Zhurba1.281111103LOct 3 · 16:30O. Bondarchuk3.25681111113O. Zhurba1.3311116832WOct 3 · 15:00D. Neborak4.506590O. Zhurba1.171111113
O. Shkurupii10
WOct 6 · 13:30D. Neborak2.208518111O. Shkurupii1.61111116133LOct 4 · 09:30O. Shkurupii2.38111011542O. Bondarchuk1.53612511113WOct 4 · 08:30O. Shkurupii1.61111410113D. Neborak2.209121271WOct 4 · 08:00O. Shkurupii3.50511112113O. Zhurba1.2811681182LOct 4 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113O. Shkurupii3.505990WOct 4 · 06:00D. Neborak2.1085150O. Shkurupii1.671111173LOct 4 · 04:30O. Bondarchuk1.531113123O. Shkurupii2.38911100LOct 3 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.507380O. Zhurba1.281111103WOct 3 · 16:00O. Shkurupii1.671211143D. Neborak2.10108120LOct 3 · 15:30O. Shkurupii2.255640O. Bondarchuk1.571111113
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