TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Malachowski vs Mateusz Rutkowski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191311117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:41 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Malachowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
1191311117––––
H2H Michal Malachowski 12–27 Mateusz Rutkowski Michal Malachowski has won 12 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Malachowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-27 in 39
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 15 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malachowski 1695 vs Rutkowski 1649
Malachowski
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malachowski 80% vs Rutkowski 20%
Malachowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malachowski 60% vs Rutkowski 40%
Malachowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malachowski +2 · Rutkowski -3
Rutkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Malachowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalachowski 1.80 / Rutkowski 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Malachowski)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13248272
Malachowski1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 113 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it75% 84 of 112
Rutkowski1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 122 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalachowski2wins
AwayRutkowski8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalachowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayRutkowski100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malachowski3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S2Malachowski2Rutkowski8n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S3Malachowski4Rutkowski6n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S4Malachowski2Rutkowski4n = 6Rutkowski took 4 of 6
S5Malachowski1Rutkowski2n = 3Rutkowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalachowskiRutkowskiM − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.039.1−6.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalachowskiRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 765 vs 830 / 148452.6%55.9%402 / 765 vs 830 / 1484Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MalachowskiMalachowski 1.80/Rutkowski 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Malachowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Malachowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 13:00M. Malachowski45651111122M. Rutkowski52111197143
LSep 24 · 06:00M. Malachowski2361070M. Rutkowski341112113
LSep 15 · 14:35M. Malachowski217950M. Rutkowski331111113
WSep 14 · 10:55M. Malachowski4011711113M. Rutkowski33811681
LAug 25 · 21:50M. Malachowski154920M. Rutkowski331111113
LAug 24 · 22:35M. Malachowski41111110632M. Rutkowski45561211113
LAug 21 · 22:05M. Malachowski376111371M. Rutkowski4311615113
LAug 21 · 20:05M. Malachowski2797110M. Rutkowski351111133
WAug 20 · 21:50M. Malachowski49119117113M. Rutkowski4251191162
LAug 9 · 16:55M. Malachowski32671181M. Rutkowski4111118113
M. Malachowski10
WOct 5 · 10:05M. Malachowski2.101312113G. Poliniewicz1.65111050WOct 5 · 09:00M. Malachowski1.681111113D. Kostal2.054630LOct 5 · 08:05M. Malachowski1.808511101K. Kapik1.8511117123WOct 5 · 06:25D. Kostal2.1091140M. Malachowski1.661113113WOct 5 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz1.8011139882M. Malachowski1.919111111113LOct 5 · 04:50M. Malachowski2.75681171M. Sklensky1.4011118113WOct 5 · 03:40M. Malachowski1.78114117113M. Olbrycht1.9161151182LSep 25 · 14:15M. Nowalinski1.8011811113M. Malachowski1.90911881WSep 25 · 13:25P. Klos1.499760M. Malachowski2.501111113LSep 25 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz1.77711811113M. Malachowski1.9311911482
M. Rutkowski10
LOct 5 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.8099100M. Olbrycht1.911111123LOct 5 · 09:45M. Rutkowski4.20411491M. Sklensky1.2011911113LOct 2 · 14:35D. Kosmal2.00111411113M. Rutkowski1.72816791WOct 2 · 13:25M. Rutkowski1.8511611113K. Wisniewski1.85711681LOct 2 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.051111133M. Rutkowski1.6588110LOct 2 · 10:55K. Kapik1.951112113M. Rutkowski1.7771010LOct 2 · 09:20P. Jendrzejewski1.701111113M. Rutkowski2.055430WOct 2 · 07:40J. Zochniak2.5368120M. Rutkowski1.461111143WOct 2 · 06:50P. Jendrzejewski1.7511911592M. Rutkowski1.98911811113WOct 2 · 06:00M. Rutkowski1.85131157113K. Kapik1.85118111182
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