TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Rein vs Daniel Zelezny 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611211––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:18 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 45 set 3, 2-11 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 69.5%
45 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 5–8 Daniel Zelezny Tomas Rein has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:1869.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1367 vs Zelezny 1610
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 244 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 20% vs Zelezny 60%
Zelezny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 20% vs Zelezny 60%
Zelezny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -3 · Zelezny +1
Rein
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.75 / Zelezny 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Zelezny)-1.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13248100
Rein2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog33% won 101 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back20% 39 of 197
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 107
Zelezny1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 36 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it73% 22 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein4wins
AwayZelezny6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelezny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein66.7%2 of 3
AwayZelezny71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein3Zelezny7n = 10Zelezny took 7 of 10
S2Rein6Zelezny4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S3Rein6Zelezny4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S4Rein3Zelezny4n = 7Zelezny took 4 of 7
S5Rein1Zelezny2n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinZeleznyR − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.339.4−1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 855 vs 127 / 23444.6%54.3%381 / 855 vs 127 / 234Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.740.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyRein 2.75/Zelezny 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 18:55T. Rein30711751D. Zelezny4111811113
WOct 1 · 16:50T. Rein331111113D. Zelezny182970
LSep 22 · 17:30T. Rein4611711982D. Zelezny49811811113
LSep 22 · 15:50T. Rein50614811112D. Zelezny561112119133
LSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein42920491D. Zelezny51111811113
WSep 15 · 15:50T. Rein4491311113D. Zelezny351111941
LSep 11 · 14:50T. Rein31691241D. Zelezny43111110113
WJul 4 · 11:55T. Rein511171111113D. Zelezny4213117382
LJun 4 · 16:50T. Rein2371060D. Zelezny341112113
WMay 29 · 17:20T. Rein331111113D. Zelezny259880
T. Rein10
LOct 5 · 21:33T. Rein2.63112791J. Cousin1.4451111113WOct 5 · 20:20T. Rein2.381113712113J. Cousin1.53515111092LOct 5 · 18:20T. Rein2.506490J. Dohnal1.501111113LOct 4 · 13:20T. Rein2.008880J. Cousin1.731111113LOct 4 · 12:20T. Rein2.5091161172J. Dohnal1.50116118113WOct 4 · 11:20T. Rein2.63161111113J. Cousin1.441471341LOct 4 · 10:20T. Rein2.10111491J. Sebl1.6711911113LOct 2 · 21:53T. Rein2.3551111892J. Dohnal1.52117811113WOct 2 · 20:55T. Rein2.75911118133J. Dohnal1.40119811112LOct 2 · 19:55T. Rein2.2051130J. Cousin1.611111153
D. Zelezny10
WOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123LOct 5 · 20:50D. Zelezny2.0010111111122J. Dohnal1.73125139143WOct 5 · 18:50J. Cousin2.6311115101D. Zelezny1.4413711123LOct 3 · 18:35D. Zelezny1.3271171172J. Cousin3.00115114113LOct 3 · 17:25D. Zelezny1.2515117982A. Brandtl Jr3.751381111113WOct 3 · 15:55J. Cousin3.0084100D. Zelezny1.361111123WOct 3 · 15:25V. Koutnik1.8011981182D. Zelezny1.91711118113LOct 3 · 14:31D. Zelezny1.9241111452J. Sebl1.78117911113LOct 3 · 13:25D. Zelezny2.00711751V. Koutnik1.7311811113WOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl1.83118411122D. Zelezny1.83911118143
Upcoming Matches
T. Rein
D. Zelezny
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