TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Krcil vs Zbynek Vyskocil 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511113811711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeAles Krcil to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Krcil above · Zbynek Vyskocil below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Ales Krcil at 70.4%
67 points played in total.
H2H Ales Krcil 4–2 Zbynek Vyskocil Zbynek Vyskocil has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:4470.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Krcil
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Krcil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1558 vs Vyskocil 1490
Krcil
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 60% vs Vyskocil 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 60% vs Vyskocil 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil +2 · Vyskocil -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Krcil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vyskocil form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.363 / Vyskocil 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Krcil)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13248047
Krcil1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 30 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Vyskocil3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog48% won 48 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back32% 22 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKrcil4wins
AwayVyskocil2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKrcil leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil100%3 of 3
AwayVyskocil66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil3Vyskocil3n = 6split evenly
S2Krcil5Vyskocil1n = 6Krcil took 5 of 6
S3Krcil4Vyskocil2n = 6Krcil took 4 of 6
S4Krcil3Vyskocil1n = 4Krcil took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKrcilVyskocilK − VBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.533.3+6.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilVyskocilBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 71 vs 288 / 58660.6%49.2%43 / 71 vs 288 / 586Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.36/Vyskocil 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vyskocil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 5 · 20:55A. Krcil31511871Z. Vyskocil3611311113
WJul 28 · 21:54A. Krcil4071111113Z. Vyskocil33118861
WJul 28 · 18:20A. Krcil331111113Z. Vyskocil175930
LJul 15 · 18:50A. Krcil51129111182Z. Vyskocil47141183113
WJun 29 · 19:55A. Krcil4511157123Z. Vyskocil4171311101
WJun 17 · 21:25A. Krcil371511113Z. Vyskocil2613940
A. Krcil10
WOct 5 · 19:55A. Krcil1.5371111113T. Barsa2.38112551WOct 5 · 18:55A. Krcil1.677111112113C. Kratochvil2.10111361062LSep 29 · 17:18A. Krcil1.734580A. Brandtl Jr2.001111113WSep 29 · 16:20A. Krcil1.8091111113L. Jirka1.91118681LSep 29 · 15:20A. Krcil1.8310790D. Zelezny1.831211113WSep 29 · 14:20A. Krcil2.00731111113A. Brandtl Jr1.7311117792LSep 24 · 22:00A. Krcil1.3641111992O. Hula3.00118411113WSep 24 · 20:55A. Krcil1.3611711113P. Cibik3.00811991WSep 24 · 19:55A. Krcil1.671111123O. Hula2.1073100LSep 24 · 18:55A. Krcil1.531510981M. Juhasz2.38131211113
Z. Vyskocil10
LOct 5 · 20:25C. Kratochvil1.5011117113Z. Vyskocil2.50861151LOct 5 · 19:25Z. Vyskocil2.10611115102T. Barsa1.67119911123WOct 2 · 22:00P. Cibik1.921071791Z. Vyskocil1.78121115113WOct 2 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil2.104111411113T. Cerveny Jr1.6711716572WOct 2 · 19:20S. Matousch1.7311109121Z. Vyskocil2.0071211143LOct 2 · 18:50P. Cibik2.00811811123Z. Vyskocil1.73116118102WSep 23 · 21:59L. Vich1.910Z. Vyskocil1.803LSep 23 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.80117511102L. Vich1.91811116123WSep 23 · 19:20M. Dlask2.635470Z. Vyskocil1.441111113LSep 23 · 18:50M. Nemec2.5061112113Z. Vyskocil1.501181051
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