TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Krcil vs Tomas Barsa 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711112115115––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:51 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeAles Krcil to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Ales Krcil @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingAles Krcil above · Tomas Barsa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 63 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Ales Krcil at 55.8%
63 points played in total.
H2H Ales Krcil 1–0 Tomas Barsa Tomas Barsa has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:5155.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 9.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1564 vs Barsa 1485
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 60% vs Barsa 20%
Krcil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 50% vs Barsa 30%
Krcil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil +1 · Barsa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Krcil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barsa form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.533 / Barsa 2.375
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Krcil)-9.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13248297
Krcil1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 30 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Barsa2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog63% won 12 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back40% 4 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKrcil1wins
AwayBarsa0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKrcil leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKrcilBarsaK − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match51.042.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilBarsaBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 69 vs 98 / 17960.9%54.8%42 / 69 vs 98 / 179Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.53/Barsa 2.38
Hit
What we said
55.8%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Ales Krcil @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
3–1
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 28 · 19:50A. Krcil511111117113T. Barsa4256131172
A. Krcil10
LOct 5 · 20:55A. Krcil1.36511871Z. Vyskocil3.0011311113WOct 5 · 18:55A. Krcil1.677111112113C. Kratochvil2.10111361062LSep 29 · 17:18A. Krcil1.734580A. Brandtl Jr2.001111113WSep 29 · 16:20A. Krcil1.8091111113L. Jirka1.91118681LSep 29 · 15:20A. Krcil1.8310790D. Zelezny1.831211113WSep 29 · 14:20A. Krcil2.00731111113A. Brandtl Jr1.7311117792LSep 24 · 22:00A. Krcil1.3641111992O. Hula3.00118411113WSep 24 · 20:55A. Krcil1.3611711113P. Cibik3.00811991WSep 24 · 19:55A. Krcil1.671111123O. Hula2.1073100LSep 24 · 18:55A. Krcil1.531510981M. Juhasz2.38131211113
T. Barsa10
WOct 5 · 19:25Z. Vyskocil2.10611115102T. Barsa1.67119911123LSep 22 · 21:30L. Vich2.051111113T. Barsa1.687970LSep 22 · 20:50T. Barsa1.7311991182T. Cerveny Jr2.00311118113LSep 22 · 19:20L. Vich2.38711611113T. Barsa1.5311511372LSep 22 · 18:50P. Cibik2.50912811113T. Barsa1.50111011972LSep 16 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil2.2012116113T. Barsa1.601081181LSep 16 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil2.25811611113T. Barsa1.5711911982WSep 16 · 19:50T. Barsa1.50121014113P. Cibik2.5010121291WSep 16 · 18:20S. Matousch2.7513137462T. Barsa1.4011111111113LSep 10 · 22:05T. Barsa1.73105111232Z. Vyskocil2.001211310113
Upcoming Matches
A. Krcil
Nothing scheduled
T. Barsa
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