TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Coufal vs Vladislav Reska 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012118611611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:02 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Coufal above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 75 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Vladislav Reska at 58.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Coufal 1–2 Vladislav Reska Ondrej Coufal has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0258.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Reska
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coufal 1382 vs Reska 1404
Reska
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coufal 60% vs Reska 40%
Coufal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coufal 50% vs Reska 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Coufal +1 · Reska -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Reska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reska form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoufal 2.25 / Reska 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Reska)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13247647
Coufal2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 8 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Reska1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 70 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it75% 51 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCoufal1wins
AwayReska2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderReska leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coufal1Reska2n = 3Reska took 2 of 3
S2Coufal1Reska2n = 3Reska took 2 of 3
S3Coufal2Reska1n = 3Coufal took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricCoufalReskaC − RBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match34.733.3+1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoufalReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime12 / 29 vs 263 / 52841.4%49.8%12 / 29 vs 263 / 528Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaCoufal 2.25/Reska 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 2 · 17:10O. Coufal205780V. Reska331111113
LSep 2 · 13:40O. Coufal4411911672V. Reska39311311113
WAug 12 · 16:15O. Coufal4071111113V. Reska28115841
O. Coufal10
LOct 5 · 16:25O. Coufal—6740T. Ogrocki—1111113WOct 5 · 13:45T. Ogrocki1.8058111152O. Coufal1.91111179113LSep 28 · 09:24P. Jokiel1.7311115123O. Coufal2.009711101WSep 28 · 07:45O. Coufal2.2031111113P. Chlad1.61116681LSep 28 · 06:45O. Coufal1.916460P. Jokiel1.801111113WSep 28 · 05:45O. Coufal1.8081111113P. Chvojka1.91116881WSep 21 · 16:40O. Coufal1.671111113O. Skvor2.108750LSep 21 · 16:10K. Przeczek1.801111113O. Coufal1.912570WSep 21 · 15:10O. Coufal1.731111133O. Skvor2.0049110LSep 21 · 13:40F. Theodor1.80681111113O. Coufal1.9111114692
V. Reska10
LOct 5 · 15:45T. Ogrocki2.38111158113V. Reska1.5399111182LOct 5 · 14:15V. Reska1.67111181152M. Janik2.10913115113LSep 30 · 21:20V. Reska2.107680F. Theodor1.671111113WSep 30 · 20:15V. Reska1.80125711113K. Zeman1.91101111682LSep 30 · 18:45F. Theodor1.80111113143V. Reska1.9161311121WSep 30 · 18:15M. Raska1.809660V. Reska1.911111113LSep 29 · 21:15V. Reska1.805760F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor1.918811111V. Reska1.8011119133LSep 29 · 19:15V. Reska2.101011114122D. Branny1.67129711143WSep 29 · 17:45L. Lasota1.679890V. Reska2.101111113
Upcoming Matches
O. Coufal
Nothing scheduled
V. Reska
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