TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jean-Baptiste Cousin vs Daniel Zelezny 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11131175111012––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJean-Baptiste Cousin above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 80 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 68.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Jean-Baptiste Cousin 10–29 Daniel Zelezny Jean-Baptiste Cousin has won 10 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4868.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-29 in 39
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 19 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cousin 1466 vs Zelezny 1603
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cousin 40% vs Zelezny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cousin 40% vs Zelezny 60%
Zelezny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cousin +1 · Zelezny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCousin 2.625 / Zelezny 1.444
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Zelezny)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13247191
Cousin2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 33 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Zelezny1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 36 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it73% 22 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCousin3wins
AwayZelezny7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZelezny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCousin33.3%1 of 3
AwayZelezny71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cousin3Zelezny7n = 10Zelezny took 7 of 10
S2Cousin4Zelezny6n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S3Cousin4Zelezny6n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S4Cousin3Zelezny5n = 8Zelezny took 5 of 8
S5Cousin2Zelezny2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCousinZeleznyC − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.143.9−5.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCousinZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 435 vs 126 / 23353.1%54.1%231 / 435 vs 126 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyCousin 2.63/Zelezny 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 18:35J. Cousin42115114113D. Zelezny4371171172
LOct 3 · 15:55J. Cousin2284100D. Zelezny341111123
LOct 2 · 22:25J. Cousin4511981162D. Zelezny51911119113
LOct 2 · 21:25J. Cousin2391040D. Zelezny341112113
LJun 28 · 10:30J. Cousin521114131042D. Zelezny588161112113
WJun 28 · 07:55J. Cousin4891611123D. Zelezny4311148101
LJun 27 · 14:55J. Cousin4110111191D. Zelezny4212136113
LJun 4 · 18:00J. Cousin28711551D. Zelezny4211911113
WJun 4 · 14:50J. Cousin48511414143D. Zelezny551191112122
LApr 16 · 15:55J. Cousin32611871D. Zelezny3711411113
J. Cousin10
WOct 5 · 21:33T. Rein2.63112791J. Cousin1.4451111113LOct 5 · 20:20T. Rein2.381113712113J. Cousin1.53515111092WOct 5 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.57611981J. Cousin2.2511711113WOct 4 · 13:20T. Rein2.008880J. Cousin1.731111113LOct 4 · 12:50J. Cousin2.753670J. Sebl1.401111113LOct 4 · 11:20T. Rein2.63161111113J. Cousin1.441471341LOct 4 · 10:50J. Dohnal1.573111118113J. Cousin2.25111391692WOct 3 · 18:35D. Zelezny1.3271171172J. Cousin3.00115114113WOct 3 · 16:55J. Cousin2.1041111123V. Koutnik1.671195101LOct 3 · 15:55J. Cousin3.0084100D. Zelezny1.361111123
D. Zelezny10
WOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123LOct 5 · 20:50D. Zelezny2.0010111111122J. Dohnal1.73125139143WOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113LOct 3 · 18:35D. Zelezny1.3271171172J. Cousin3.00115114113LOct 3 · 17:25D. Zelezny1.2515117982A. Brandtl Jr3.751381111113WOct 3 · 15:55J. Cousin3.0084100D. Zelezny1.361111123WOct 3 · 15:25V. Koutnik1.8011981182D. Zelezny1.91711118113LOct 3 · 14:31D. Zelezny1.9241111452J. Sebl1.78117911113LOct 3 · 13:25D. Zelezny2.00711751V. Koutnik1.7311811113WOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl1.83118411122D. Zelezny1.83911118143
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