TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Kowalski vs Piotr Gumulinski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911911––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:24 and never touched: 87.7% is still 87.7%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
87.7%
87.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
811911911––––
H2H Kamil Kowalski 1–4 Piotr Gumulinski Kamil Kowalski has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kowalski beat Gumulinski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:2487.7%Our read90.1%to break even at 1.11
short by 2.4pp90.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.11 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 1083 vs Gumulinski 1464
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 381 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 40% vs Gumulinski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 20% vs Gumulinski 40%
Gumulinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski -3 · Gumulinski -1
Kowalski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% · Strong (leans Gumulinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 6.00 / Gumulinski 1.11
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Gumulinski)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13246254
Kowalski6.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog17% won 30 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back5% 6 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 77
Gumulinski1.11
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 380 of 608
Up 2–0, closes it95% 170 of 179
Up 1–0, closes it77% 253 of 327
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKowalski1wins
AwayGumulinski4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderGumulinski leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGumulinski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalski2Gumulinski3n = 5Gumulinski took 3 of 5
S2Kowalski2Gumulinski3n = 5Gumulinski took 3 of 5
S3Kowalski2Gumulinski3n = 5Gumulinski took 3 of 5
S4Kowalski4Gumulinski1n = 5Kowalski took 4 of 5
S5Kowalski0Gumulinski3n = 3Gumulinski took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away360%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKowalskiGumulinskiK − GBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match46.847.2−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 186 vs 1034 / 182117.2%56.8%32 / 186 vs 1034 / 1821Avg sets wonper match1.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match32.839.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiKowalski 6.00/Gumulinski 1.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.7%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 4 · 19:30K. Kowalski4991712113P. Gumulinski4311151071
LSep 17 · 14:20K. Kowalski4513581182P. Gumulinski501111116113
LSep 17 · 08:10K. Kowalski4989111292P. Gumulinski481111510113
LJul 29 · 11:00K. Kowalski391198111P. Gumulinski4491111133
LJul 29 · 04:55K. Kowalski52811911132P. Gumulinski51115119153
K. Kowalski10
LOct 5 · 02:20D. Dytko1.121111113K. Kowalski4.907890LOct 5 · 00:20K. Kowalski4.80711551P. Kurek1.1411711113LOct 4 · 22:40K. Kowalski2.5011631162W. Urban1.45911117113LOct 4 · 21:05J. Nowak1.85711112113K. Kowalski1.8011591192WOct 4 · 20:20P. Kurek1.301110101172K. Kowalski3.10812125113WOct 4 · 19:30K. Kowalski1.8891712113P. Gumulinski1.8411151071LOct 4 · 18:20K. Kowalski2.60511451D. Dytko1.4211811113LOct 3 · 05:05K. Kowalski6.00811961H. Tkaczyk1.1111411113LOct 3 · 03:30K. Kowalski3.258770R. Wiza1.301111113LOct 3 · 02:20K. Kowalski2.158250J. Michalski1.601111113
P. Gumulinski10
LOct 4 · 23:55J. Nowak2.801217113P. Gumulinski1.37101590WOct 4 · 23:05P. Kurek2.55111191172P. Gumulinski1.46571113113LOct 4 · 21:55P. Gumulinski1.4710711101W. Urban2.5012116123WOct 4 · 20:45D. Dytko2.1591181182P. Gumulinski1.63118117113LOct 4 · 19:30K. Kowalski1.8891712113P. Gumulinski1.8411151071LOct 4 · 17:55J. Nowak3.10111211113P. Gumulinski1.307101391WOct 3 · 16:20P. Gumulinski2.101111113P. Jedrzejak1.607880LOct 3 · 15:05P. Gumulinski2.20881111132D. Morawiec1.61111188153WOct 3 · 13:55P. Gumulinski1.651451111113R. Wojcik2.1016118382LOct 3 · 12:45D. Swider2.001111113P. Gumulinski1.725410
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