TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bruno Mrowetz vs Tomas Krenek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1168116111181012
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:35 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Tomas Krenek at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 18–23 Tomas Krenek Bruno Mrowetz has won 18 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3554.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-23 in 41
Krenek
Correct
gap of 5 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1629 vs Krenek 1615
Mrowetz
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 40% vs Krenek 60%
Krenek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 50% vs Krenek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz +1 · Krenek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krenek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.909 / Krenek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krenek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245990
Mrowetz1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 63 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Krenek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 126 of 223
Up 2–0, closes it93% 49 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it73% 83 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz3wins
AwayKrenek7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz33.3%1 of 3
AwayKrenek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz3Krenek7n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S2Mrowetz4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Mrowetz5Krenek5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrowetz3Krenek5n = 8Krenek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzKrenekM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.642.5−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 527 vs 504 / 98550.5%51.2%266 / 527 vs 504 / 985Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekMrowetz 1.91/Krenek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 14:15B. Mrowetz27511651T. Krenek4211911113
WSep 3 · 05:45B. Mrowetz44111111113T. Krenek34613781
LSep 2 · 11:15B. Mrowetz3651011101T. Krenek4311128123
LAug 25 · 12:38B. Mrowetz59121182082T. Krenek591051122113
LAug 25 · 11:10B. Mrowetz195680T. Krenek331111113
LAug 24 · 10:10B. Mrowetz4814101771T. Krenek54121219113
LAug 12 · 10:40B. Mrowetz355911101T. Krenek4111117123
WAug 10 · 09:40B. Mrowetz43101111113T. Krenek39129991
WAug 8 · 15:45B. Mrowetz51141113133T. Krenek4616811111
LJul 21 · 11:10B. Mrowetz2459100T. Krenek341111123
B. Mrowetz10
WOct 5 · 07:45B. Mrowetz1.501111113L. Slavik2.506880LOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz1.61391481R. Benes2.20111112113WOct 4 · 12:50T. Molin2.7591611692B. Mrowetz1.401114811113LOct 4 · 11:45B. Mrowetz1.735570J. Krupnik2.001111113LOct 4 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.61111111652J. Travnicek2.20137811113LOct 4 · 09:45B. Mrowetz1.539870T. Molin2.381111113WOct 1 · 13:05B. Mrowetz1.9151111113D. Velky Jr1.80116171LOct 1 · 11:40D. Velky Jr2.201112113B. Mrowetz1.6181090WOct 1 · 11:10T. Kindl2.109940B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.831111115113L. Dzida1.8385131162
T. Krenek10
LOct 5 · 07:15T. Krenek1.91411951L. Slavik1.8011411113LOct 3 · 17:14M. Macurak1.831114163T. Krenek1.83612140WOct 3 · 16:15T. Krenek1.5791111113K. Kleprlik2.25118391LOct 3 · 14:45M. Macurak1.911211413113T. Krenek1.80106111572WOct 3 · 14:15J. Krupnik1.731091191T. Krenek2.0012119113WOct 2 · 13:18T. Krenek1.831111113E. Precek1.836690WOct 2 · 11:45M. Macurak1.7311119101T. Krenek2.0013411123WOct 2 · 11:15L. Dzida1.7312970T. Krenek2.001411113LOct 2 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73891111102E. Precek2.00111187123LSep 30 · 13:13J. Skvrna1.8081111113T. Krenek1.91117951
Upcoming Matches
B. Mrowetz
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T. Krenek
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