TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Simchuk vs Pavlo Shulhachyk 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112116116––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePavlo Shulhachyk to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Pavlo Shulhachyk below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 47 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Pavlo Shulhachyk at 56.5%
47 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 2–12 Pavlo Shulhachyk Viacheslav Simchuk has won 2 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5256.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Shulhachyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-12 in 14
Shulhachyk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1506 vs Shulhachyk 1453
Simchuk
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 60% vs Shulhachyk 80%
Shulhachyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 80% vs Shulhachyk 50%
Simchuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk -1 · Shulhachyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Shulhachyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shulhachyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 2.20 / Shulhachyk 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Shulhachyk)-5.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245393
Simchuk2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 17 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Shulhachyk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 46 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it80% 35 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk2wins
AwayShulhachyk8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderShulhachyk leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayShulhachyk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk3Shulhachyk7n = 10Shulhachyk took 7 of 10
S2Simchuk4Shulhachyk6n = 10Shulhachyk took 6 of 10
S3Simchuk4Shulhachyk6n = 10Shulhachyk took 6 of 10
S4Simchuk2Shulhachyk5n = 7Shulhachyk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukShulhachykSimchuk − ShulhachykBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.437.4−5.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukShulhachykBasisWin rate · lifetime288 / 464 vs 160 / 27662.1%58%288 / 464 vs 160 / 276Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.435.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShulhachykSimchuk 2.20/Shulhachyk 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Shulhachyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 09:00V. Simchuk226880P. Shulhachyk331111113
LAug 11 · 05:30V. Simchuk172690P. Shulhachyk331111113
WAug 6 · 12:30V. Simchuk331111113P. Shulhachyk135620
LJun 24 · 05:00V. Simchuk441412991P. Shulhachyk48161011113
LMay 19 · 10:29V. Simchuk20241131P. Shulhachyk3911116113
WMay 19 · 05:00V. Simchuk4211119113P. Shulhachyk30971131
LMar 8 · 18:09V. Simchuk31871151P. Shulhachyk4111118113
LMar 8 · 13:30V. Simchuk22411341P. Shulhachyk4211911113
LSep 20 · 10:00V. Simchuk48144111182P. Shulhachyk49161183113
LSep 20 · 05:30V. Simchuk451188181P. Shulhachyk4641111203
V. Simchuk10
WOct 5 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.6181111113I. Dubinin2.20114581LOct 4 · 17:38V. Simchuk1.5361011111V. Kurliuk2.3811124133WOct 4 · 16:30V. Kurliuk2.75111659112V. Simchuk1.409141111133WOct 4 · 15:00V. Simchuk1.44111211113I. Sorochan2.63514771WOct 4 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.20113119113A. Lysyi4.3341171142LOct 4 · 12:00V. Simchuk1.2287111112O. Levytskyi4.00111169113WSep 29 · 10:30S. Honcharenko2.50104110V. Simchuk1.501211133WSep 29 · 09:30V. Simchuk1.501111113S. Honcharenko2.507880WSep 29 · 08:30V. Simchuk1.221111113E. Bakin4.004690WSep 29 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.2011413123A. Lysyi4.3371111101
P. Shulhachyk10
WOct 5 · 13:00I. Sushko1.5391191172P. Shulhachyk2.38117117113WOct 1 · 17:08P. Kolesnik1.4013811942P. Shulhachyk2.751111711113WOct 1 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.83911891P. Shulhachyk1.8311811113LOct 1 · 14:30P. Shulhachyk2.389660P. Kolesnik1.531111113WOct 1 · 13:30M. Pohorilyi1.6771190P. Shulhachyk2.101113113WOct 1 · 12:30P. Shulhachyk2.38111110123S. Sideltsev1.536812101LSep 18 · 09:00S. Honcharenko3.501111123P. Shulhachyk1.2855100WSep 18 · 07:30N. Priadko2.25111310111P. Shulhachyk1.5771512133LSep 18 · 06:00I. Sorochan2.101111113P. Shulhachyk1.674640LSep 18 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.611112113P. Shulhachyk2.2051060
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