TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Kozachuk vs Ivan Romaniak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11131210911511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:17 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 82 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 63.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 50–27 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 27 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1763.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kozachuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
50-27 in 77
Kozachuk
Wrong
gap of 23 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1697 vs Romaniak 1635
Kozachuk
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 20% vs Romaniak 40%
Romaniak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 20% vs Romaniak 40%
Romaniak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -4 · Romaniak +2
Kozachuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Kozachuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.50 / Romaniak 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kozachuk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245359
Kozachuk1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 116 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it83% 86 of 104
Romaniak2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 117 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back27% 46 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back12% 12 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk10wins
AwayRomaniak0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk100%9 of 9
AwayRomaniakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk9Romaniak1n = 10Kozachuk took 9 of 10
S2Kozachuk8Romaniak2n = 10Kozachuk took 8 of 10
S3Kozachuk8Romaniak2n = 10Kozachuk took 8 of 10
S4Kozachuk3Romaniak2n = 5Kozachuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukRomaniakK − RBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.429.7+10.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime558 / 1106 vs 256 / 57450.5%44.6%558 / 1106 vs 256 / 574Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.50/Romaniak 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 08:35I. Kozachuk331111113I. Romaniak216960
WSep 28 · 18:05I. Kozachuk529111110113I. Romaniak4011281272
WSep 26 · 05:05I. Kozachuk4212811113I. Romaniak361011961
WSep 25 · 17:05I. Kozachuk511211116113I. Romaniak45101381132
WSep 25 · 01:00I. Kozachuk331111113I. Romaniak143740
WSep 22 · 08:35I. Kozachuk341112113I. Romaniak2171040
WSep 21 · 12:35I. Kozachuk43111110113I. Romaniak32691251
WSep 15 · 10:35I. Kozachuk4212118113I. Romaniak311011191
WSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk371112143I. Romaniak26410120
WSep 10 · 20:30I. Kozachuk371411123I. Romaniak31129100
I. Kozachuk10
LOct 3 · 10:35Y. Kravets2.201111113I. Kozachuk1.616760LOct 3 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.63971161S. Rak1.4411118113LOct 3 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.67115771D. Shcherbak2.1081111113LOct 3 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.007840D. Pesternikov1.731111113WOct 3 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.1171111113O. Napirko6.00117531LOct 2 · 18:05D. Pesternikov1.801111117113I. Kozachuk1.9186131112WOct 2 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.731111113Y. Kravets2.006560LOct 2 · 16:05I. Kozachuk3.00114681D. Zeniuk1.3691111113LOct 2 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.5012360S. Rak1.501411113LOct 2 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.8311411982D. Shcherbak1.83611911113
I. Romaniak10
LOct 5 · 13:25D. Shcherbak1.5311911123I. Romaniak2.384117101WSep 29 · 11:05O. Napirko2.004970I. Romaniak1.731111113WSep 29 · 10:05D. Neborak1.73111114932I. Romaniak2.00461611113LSep 29 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.501111113I. Romaniak2.506960LSep 29 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi1.831291411113I. Romaniak1.83101116542LSep 29 · 04:35D. Shcherbak1.571111123I. Romaniak2.2559100LSep 28 · 18:05I. Romaniak2.3811281272I. Kozachuk1.539111110113WSep 28 · 16:35I. Romaniak2.501111113S. Rak1.509920WSep 28 · 15:05I. Romaniak1.9111811113O. Napirko1.80711551LSep 28 · 13:35I. Romaniak1.83931161D. Neborak1.8311118113
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