TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Leonenko vs Anatolii Kovalenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11713151210116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:23 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleksandr Leonenko @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 85 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 54.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 7–4 Anatolii Kovalenko Anatolii Kovalenko has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 04:2354.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Leonenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Leonenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1495 vs Kovalenko 1424
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 80% vs Kovalenko 20%
Leonenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 50% vs Kovalenko 30%
Leonenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +3 · Kovalenko -2
Leonenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Leonenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.727 / Kovalenko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Leonenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245319
Leonenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 87 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 48 of 62
Kovalenko2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 37 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko6wins
AwayKovalenko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayKovalenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko6Kovalenko4n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S2Leonenko4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S3Leonenko4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Leonenko3Kovalenko2n = 5Leonenko took 3 of 5
S5Leonenko4Kovalenko1n = 5Leonenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoKovalenkoL − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.6+0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 821 vs 300 / 57051%52.6%419 / 821 vs 300 / 570Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoLeonenko 1.73/Kovalenko 2.00
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Leonenko @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–1
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 3 · 13:00O. Leonenko521111118113A. Kovalenko4881391172
WSep 22 · 11:35O. Leonenko43126113113A. Kovalenko42101151152
LSep 11 · 16:30O. Leonenko49116911122A. Kovalenko54911119143
WSep 3 · 09:20O. Leonenko361111143A. Kovalenko2787120
WJul 2 · 11:50O. Leonenko331111113A. Kovalenko156540
WJan 8 · 16:10O. Leonenko474111011113A. Kovalenko4511812952
LJan 7 · 10:00O. Leonenko2691070A. Kovalenko341112113
LDec 29 · 10:20O. Leonenko199640A. Kovalenko331111113
WDec 15 · 07:50O. Leonenko491210511113A. Kovalenko49101211882
O. Leonenko10
WOct 5 · 08:00O. Leonenko2.20511116153S. Solomko1.61116911132LOct 5 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov1.368111011113O. Leonenko3.0011412992WOct 3 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.2015511113S. Solomko1.611311681WOct 3 · 16:30O. Osadchyi1.731110891O. Leonenko2.0061211113WOct 3 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.00111132103E. Populovskyi1.7347111162LOct 3 · 14:30A. Martyniuk1.5711511123O. Leonenko2.258119101WOct 3 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.731111118113A. Kovalenko2.0081391172LOct 1 · 10:03A. Martyniuk1.6713712113O. Leonenko2.1011111081LOct 1 · 09:35O. Leonenko2.10721211S. Solomko1.67111110113LOct 1 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83471171A. Martyniuk1.8311116113
A. Kovalenko10
WOct 5 · 07:30O. Volynets1.40121360A. Kovalenko2.751415113WOct 5 · 06:30A. Kovalenko1.9111118163E. Populovskyi1.807611141LOct 4 · 12:50A. Kurtenko2.00101211113A. Kovalenko1.731210741LOct 4 · 11:20A. Kovalenko2.258930O. Osadchyi1.571111113WOct 4 · 09:20A. Martyniuk1.40111171182A. Kovalenko2.75681113113LOct 4 · 07:20E. Populovskyi1.9111115123A. Kovalenko1.805711101LOct 4 · 06:20S. Solomko1.731111113A. Kovalenko2.005680LOct 3 · 19:00A. Kovalenko1.8091111872E. Populovskyi1.91114811113LOct 3 · 17:00A. Martyniuk1.4491111123A. Kovalenko2.631179101LOct 3 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.731111118113A. Kovalenko2.0081391172
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