TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matej Nohejl vs Martin Vizek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811711611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched: 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Vizek to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Nohejl above · Martin Vizek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Martin Vizek at 57.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Matej Nohejl 2–8 Martin Vizek Matej Nohejl has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Vizek beat Nohejl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1057.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vizek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Vizek
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nohejl 1635 vs Vizek 1588
Nohejl
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nohejl 40% vs Vizek 80%
Vizek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nohejl 50% vs Vizek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nohejl +1 · Vizek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Vizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vizek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNohejl 2.10 / Vizek 1.666
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vizek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13244558
Nohejl2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 19 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Vizek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 47 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 29 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNohejl2wins
AwayVizek8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVizek leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNohejln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVizek87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nohejl2Vizek8n = 10Vizek took 8 of 10
S2Nohejl3Vizek7n = 10Vizek took 7 of 10
S3Nohejl7Vizek3n = 10Nohejl took 7 of 10
S4Nohejl4Vizek5n = 9Vizek took 5 of 9
S5Nohejl1Vizek4n = 5Vizek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNohejlVizekN − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.141.6−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNohejlVizekBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 185 vs 220 / 43650.8%50.5%94 / 185 vs 220 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VizekNohejl 2.10/Vizek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Vizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 15:00M. Nohejl3936111182M. Vizek45111157113
LSep 28 · 20:58M. Nohejl368111161M. Vizek4411913113
LSep 28 · 20:30M. Nohejl177820M. Vizek331111113
WAug 30 · 21:28M. Nohejl4111118113M. Vizek25341171
LAug 30 · 20:00M. Nohejl4411811772M. Vizek44511611113
LDec 29 · 15:00M. Nohejl46108121152M. Vizek511211107113
LDec 1 · 17:00M. Nohejl46911111052M. Vizek49116912113
LNov 2 · 15:00M. Nohejl31781151M. Vizek3811115113
LOct 2 · 14:30M. Nohejl316411101M. Vizek4311119123
WJun 13 · 16:00M. Nohejl50891111113M. Vizek4411118772
M. Nohejl10
WOct 4 · 16:30M. Nohejl1.4013119113T. Janata2.751171151LOct 4 · 15:00M. Nohejl2.1036111182M. Vizek1.67111157113WOct 4 · 14:00J. Zuzanek1.735960M. Nohejl2.001111113LSep 28 · 20:58M. Vizek1.8311913113M. Nohejl1.838111161LSep 28 · 20:30M. Nohejl1.837820M. Vizek1.831111113LSep 28 · 19:00M. Nohejl2.007670K. Schopf1.731111113WSep 28 · 18:00M. Sychra1.9111811752M. Nohejl1.80911511113WSep 27 · 17:30M. Nohejl1.9591111113M. Sychra1.75113441LSep 27 · 16:30K. Schopf1.8012129113M. Nohejl1.9110101191WSep 27 · 15:30M. Nohejl2.381111123J. Zuzanek1.5387100
M. Vizek10
LOct 4 · 16:00J. Zuzanek2.001311116113M. Vizek1.73111361172WOct 4 · 15:00M. Nohejl2.1036111182M. Vizek1.67111157113WOct 4 · 14:30M. Vizek1.61121128113T. Janata2.20105111182WOct 3 · 03:30S. Kadavy1.70511511112M. Vizek2.02118118133WOct 3 · 02:30M. Vizek1.531116113R. Krejci2.3881480LOct 3 · 01:30S. Kadavy1.731110811113M. Vizek2.0071211492WOct 3 · 00:00M. Vizek2.00111195113P. Pycha1.7389111192LOct 2 · 23:00M. Volf1.911311710113M. Vizek1.80112111282WSep 28 · 20:58M. Vizek1.8311913113M. Nohejl1.838111161WSep 28 · 20:30M. Nohejl1.837820M. Vizek1.831111113
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