TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Mutl vs Zdenek Kasinski 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113114411411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched: 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Zdenek Kasinski below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 4-10
Point 68 set 4, 4-10 · our read held David Mutl at 55.6%
68 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H David Mutl 0–1 Zdenek Kasinski David Mutl has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kasinski beat Mutl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1055.6%Our read52.6%to break even at 1.90
clears by 3.0pp52.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.90 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kasinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1160 vs Kasinski 1148
Mutl
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 80% vs Kasinski 60%
Mutl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 60% vs Kasinski 40%
Mutl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl +1 · Kasinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Mutl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 1.90 / Kasinski 1.80
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Mutl)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13244534
Mutl1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 34 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Kasinski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite33% won 12 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it53% 10 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMutl0wins
AwayKasinski1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKasinski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMutlKasinskiM − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.047.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlKasinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 148 vs 60 / 13748%43.8%71 / 148 vs 60 / 137Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MutlMutl 1.90/Kasinski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.6%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kasinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 4 · 15:00D. Mutl3811511562Z. Kasinski47711711113
D. Mutl10
WOct 4 · 16:00V. Stach1.5358111172D. Mutl2.38111185113LOct 4 · 15:00Z. Kasinski1.83711711113D. Mutl1.8311511562WOct 4 · 14:30D. Mutl2.381215113M. Vrabec1.53101330WSep 30 · 13:30D. Mutl1.6091111113L. Novotny2.20118871WSep 30 · 12:30L. Novotny2.20101070D. Mutl1.611212113WSep 30 · 11:30D. Mutl2.75111211113M. Vaclavik1.40814881WSep 30 · 10:30J. Cernik2.25881131D. Mutl1.5711118113LSep 30 · 09:08J. Potensky1.5011116113D. Mutl2.40421191LSep 30 · 08:00J. Cernik2.251151111113D. Mutl1.5731181392LSep 30 · 07:00J. Potensky1.611111113D. Mutl2.204150
Z. Kasinski10
LOct 4 · 16:30Z. Kasinski1.5711113642M. Vrabec2.25221111113WOct 4 · 15:00Z. Kasinski1.83711711113D. Mutl1.8311511562WOct 4 · 14:00V. Stach1.67712771Z. Kasinski2.10111011113WOct 1 · 16:59J. Cernik1.50111211692Z. Kasinski2.50414911113LOct 1 · 16:30V. Stach1.801311113Z. Kasinski1.9111680LOct 1 · 15:30Z. Kasinski2.2510570M. Vaclavik1.571211113LOct 1 · 14:30J. Cernik2.6381211123Z. Kasinski1.4411107101LSep 26 · 13:30M. Vaclavik1.7011118133Z. Kasinski2.028411111WSep 26 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.8081111103M. Vrabec1.91112341LSep 26 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.331711117102J. Cernik3.25194911123
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