TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Cermak vs Jakub Stolfa 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111151191311––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Vladimir Cermak at 67.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 20–5 Jakub Stolfa Jakub Stolfa has won 5 of their 25 meetings.
They have already met 3 times today · last one 3h before this match
Cermak beat Stolfa 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0467.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-5 in 25
Cermak
Correct
gap of 15 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1662 vs Stolfa 1644
Cermak
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 80% vs Stolfa 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 80% vs Stolfa 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak +3 · Stolfa +1
Cermak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Cermak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 1.40 / Stolfa 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Cermak)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13244533
Cermak1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 159 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it79% 126 of 160
Stolfa2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 71 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back34% 27 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak8wins
AwayStolfa2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak87.5%7 of 8
AwayStolfan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak8Stolfa2n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S2Cermak7Stolfa3n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S3Cermak8Stolfa2n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S4Cermak3Stolfa2n = 5Cermak took 3 of 5
S5Cermak2Stolfa2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakStolfaC − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.130.6+8.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime568 / 1104 vs 231 / 43551.5%53.1%568 / 1104 vs 231 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CermakCermak 1.40/Stolfa 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 15:00V. Cermak331111113J. Stolfa183870
LOct 4 · 13:30V. Cermak4411511982J. Stolfa49711911113
WOct 4 · 11:00V. Cermak381111163J. Stolfa2978140
WOct 2 · 13:30V. Cermak331111113J. Stolfa166280
WOct 2 · 12:00V. Cermak331111113J. Stolfa198560
WSep 29 · 11:00V. Cermak49791111113J. Stolfa3611115452
WSep 29 · 06:00V. Cermak4111711123J. Stolfa348115101
WSep 15 · 10:30V. Cermak44111156113J. Stolfa4089111112
LSep 15 · 09:00V. Cermak4371271162J. Stolfa521110119113
WSep 15 · 06:00V. Cermak331111113J. Stolfa135530
V. Cermak10
WOct 4 · 16:00M. Chlebecek1.83138613102V. Cermak1.8311111111123WOct 4 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.633870V. Cermak1.441111113WOct 4 · 14:30V. Cermak2.25111196113M. Sobisek1.5789111172LOct 4 · 13:30V. Cermak1.4011511982J. Stolfa2.75711911113WOct 4 · 12:00T. Vinter1.9181171192V. Cermak1.80116114113WOct 4 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.7578140V. Cermak1.401111163LOct 4 · 10:30V. Cermak2.2086150M. Sobisek1.611111173WOct 2 · 13:30V. Cermak1.441111113J. Stolfa2.636280WOct 2 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.258560V. Cermak1.571111113WOct 2 · 11:00R. Pavelka2.004970V. Cermak1.731111113
J. Stolfa10
WOct 4 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.571111133M. Sobisek2.2558110LOct 4 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.633870V. Cermak1.441111113WOct 4 · 14:00M. Chlebecek2.1012560J. Stolfa1.671411113WOct 4 · 13:30V. Cermak1.4011511982J. Stolfa2.75711911113WOct 4 · 12:30J. Stolfa1.5011149113M. Sobisek2.507121191LOct 4 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.7578140V. Cermak1.401111163WOct 4 · 10:00T. Vinter2.1071191292J. Stolfa1.671161110113LOct 3 · 13:00J. Stolfa1.5391270J. Prokupek2.381114113LOct 2 · 13:30V. Cermak1.441111113J. Stolfa2.636280LOct 2 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.258560V. Cermak1.571111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Cermak
Nothing scheduled
J. Stolfa
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