TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Zbigniew Nocun 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
121015171012711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:09 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-10
Point 93 set 4, 7-10 · our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 60.9%
93 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 4–6 Zbigniew Nocun Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0960.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Nocun
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1359 vs Nocun 1474
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 60% vs Nocun 80%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Nocun 60%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +1 · Nocun +4
Nocun
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Nocun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 2.20 / Nocun 1.615
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Nocun)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243219
Kwiatkowski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 79 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 70
Nocun1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 334 of 503
Up 2–0, closes it94% 166 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it86% 244 of 284
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski4wins
AwayNocun6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski80%4 of 5
AwayNocun100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S2Kwiatkowski3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S4Kwiatkowski3Nocun3n = 6split evenly
S5Kwiatkowski1Nocun2n = 3Nocun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiNocunK − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.639.0−2.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 331 vs 720 / 120044.1%60%146 / 331 vs 720 / 1200Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NocunKwiatkowski 2.20/Nocun 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 00:50K. Kwiatkowski4011117382Z. Nocun49881111113
WSep 28 · 19:20K. Kwiatkowski3811115113Z. Nocun32871161
WAug 19 · 05:05K. Kwiatkowski48111212133Z. Nocun4491410111
LAug 18 · 20:45K. Kwiatkowski46115111182Z. Nocun49131186113
LAug 12 · 04:40K. Kwiatkowski356101181Z. Nocun4311129113
LAug 11 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski226790Z. Nocun331111113
LJul 15 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski258890Z. Nocun331111113
LJul 14 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski268990Z. Nocun331111113
WJul 9 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski371114123Z. Nocun28612100
WJul 9 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski49119117113Z. Nocun4661191192
K. Kwiatkowski10
WOct 4 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski1.671111123A. Szurgot2.1047100LSep 30 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.8597100J. Skorupa1.851111123LSep 30 · 03:05A. Fomin1.7011611133K. Kwiatkowski1.957117111WSep 30 · 02:20J. Michalik1.95101370K. Kwiatkowski1.751215113WSep 30 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.621113612113G. Mucha2.15711111482LSep 30 · 00:20K. Kwiatkowski1.70111153112M. Brunner2.00871111133LSep 29 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski1.755611101J. Skorupa1.9511119123WSep 29 · 21:05A. Fomin1.6012980K. Kwiatkowski2.101411113LSep 29 · 20:20M. Brunner1.751311123K. Kwiatkowski1.97114100LSep 29 · 19:30K. Kwiatkowski1.95111171272G. Mucha1.75971114113
Z. Nocun10
WOct 4 · 15:25Z. Nocun1.33841111113A. Staniczek3.2511118742WOct 2 · 02:10A. Krezel2.007530Z. Nocun1.731111113WOct 2 · 01:25A. Barton7.50881171Z. Nocun1.0711112113WOct 1 · 23:20A. Skupinski2.2563111152Z. Nocun1.57111189113LOct 1 · 22:35A. Fomin2.0011138133Z. Nocun1.7361111111LOct 1 · 21:00M. Leczycki1.57411811123Z. Nocun2.25119118102LOct 1 · 20:05A. Krezel1.67111213113Z. Nocun2.109101561WOct 1 · 19:20A. Barton7.50611781Z. Nocun1.0711311113WOct 1 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.3857100Z. Nocun1.531111123LOct 1 · 16:35M. Leczycki2.0012115113Z. Nocun1.731071181
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Oct 4 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski2.00G. Mucha1.73—Oct 4 · 18:55K. Kwiatkowski2.75H. Tkaczyk1.40—Oct 4 · 20:30K. Kwiatkowski1.73A. Staniczek2.00—Oct 4 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski2.00G. Mucha1.73—Oct 4 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski1.67A. Szurgot2.10—Oct 5 · 00:10K. Kwiatkowski1.73A. Staniczek2.00—Oct 5 · 01:00K. Kwiatkowski1.83J. Michalik1.83—Oct 5 · 01:45K. Kwiatkowski2.20Z. Nocun1.61—
Z. Nocun
Oct 4 · 17:20Z. Nocun1.25A. Szurgot3.75—Oct 4 · 18:30Z. Nocun1.53G. Mucha2.38—Oct 4 · 19:40Z. Nocun2.10H. Tkaczyk1.67—Oct 4 · 21:20Z. Nocun1.33A. Staniczek3.25—Oct 4 · 22:10Z. Nocun1.44J. Michalik2.63—Oct 4 · 23:20Z. Nocun—A. Szurgot——Oct 5 · 00:35Z. Nocun1.53G. Mucha2.38—Oct 5 · 01:45Z. Nocun1.61K. Kwiatkowski2.20—
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