TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Robert Jamrich vs Ondrej Varecka 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911811––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Varecka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRobert Jamrich above · Ondrej Varecka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Ondrej Varecka at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Robert Jamrich 2–0 Ondrej Varecka Ondrej Varecka has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Varecka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jamrich 1433 vs Varecka 1459
Varecka
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jamrich 40% vs Varecka 20%
Jamrich
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jamrich 30% vs Varecka 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jamrich -3 · Varecka -1
Jamrich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Varecka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecka form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJamrich 2.00 / Varecka 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Varecka)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13242721
Jamrich2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 26 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Varecka1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 92 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it75% 65 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJamrich2wins
AwayVarecka0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderJamrich leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJamrichVareckaJ − VBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match43.035.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJamrichVareckaBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 306 vs 129 / 23444.8%55.1%137 / 306 vs 129 / 234Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VareckaJamrich 2.00/Varecka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Varecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Varecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 28 · 18:10R. Jamrich47911115113O. Varecka3911351192
WSep 28 · 15:55R. Jamrich3911611113O. Varecka31711581
R. Jamrich10
LOct 4 · 16:20J. Kulveit1.571111113R. Jamrich2.257850WOct 4 · 15:50D. Sykora1.833690R. Jamrich1.831111113LSep 30 · 14:08R. Jamrich1.839811121M. Filipek1.8311116143LSep 30 · 13:25R. Jamrich1.831011115132F. Marat1.83125911153LSep 30 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.911115113R. Jamrich1.8091360WSep 30 · 11:25M. Filipek1.731111871R. Jamrich2.0081311113WSep 28 · 18:10O. Varecka2.0011351192R. Jamrich1.73911115113LSep 28 · 17:25R. Jamrich2.2511123392J. Kulveit1.578101111113WSep 28 · 15:55O. Varecka1.57711581R. Jamrich2.2511611113LSep 28 · 15:25J. Melichar1.441212113R. Jamrich2.63101080
O. Varecka10
WOct 4 · 15:20J. Kulveit1.8011119452O. Varecka1.91771111113LSep 28 · 18:10O. Varecka2.0011351192R. Jamrich1.73911115113WSep 28 · 16:55O. Varecka2.00411117113J. Melichar1.7311821172LSep 28 · 15:55O. Varecka1.57711581R. Jamrich2.2511611113LSep 28 · 14:55O. Varecka1.80119571J. Kulveit1.9161111113LAug 14 · 10:03O. Fiklik1.801012311143O. Varecka1.911210119122LAug 14 · 08:55A. Langer2.381212113O. Varecka1.53101060LAug 14 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.911111123O. Varecka1.8076100LAug 14 · 07:25O. Varecka1.839980V. Hejda Jr1.831111113WAug 13 · 14:35M. Sulc1.44117851O. Varecka2.6391111113
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