TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Trnka vs Matej Holub 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116114––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:10 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 51 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Tomas Trnka at 54.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 6–4 Matej Holub Matej Holub has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1054.1%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 23.7pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Trnka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Trnka
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1592 vs Holub 1581
Trnka
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 60% vs Holub 20%
Trnka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 50% vs Holub 10%
Trnka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka -1 · Holub -3
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Trnka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 1.285 / Holub 3.50
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trnka)-23.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13241206
Trnka1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite68% won 65 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it83% 48 of 58
Holub3.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 42 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back32% 15 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrnka6wins
AwayHolub4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTrnka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnka75%6 of 8
AwayHolubn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka8Holub2n = 10Trnka took 8 of 10
S2Trnka7Holub3n = 10Trnka took 7 of 10
S3Trnka8Holub2n = 10Trnka took 8 of 10
S4Trnka0Holub4n = 4Holub took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrnkaHolubT − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.727.2+7.5per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 291 vs 124 / 22751.6%54.6%150 / 291 vs 124 / 227Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaTrnka 1.28/Holub 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 15:35T. Trnka381386111M. Holub46111111133
LJul 26 · 09:05T. Trnka4011611662M. Holub44811311113
WJul 26 · 07:05T. Trnka331111113M. Holub219660
LJul 19 · 12:05T. Trnka367611121M. Holub4011114143
WJul 18 · 17:33T. Trnka331111113M. Holub133550
LJul 18 · 14:35T. Trnka35911781M. Holub3611311113
WJul 13 · 15:05T. Trnka331111113M. Holub185670
WJun 27 · 11:05T. Trnka331111113M. Holub226970
WJun 26 · 17:15T. Trnka331111113M. Holub189720
WJun 26 · 14:35T. Trnka331111113M. Holub144730
T. Trnka10
LOct 4 · 11:05M. Mastera1.44159119113T. Trnka2.63131171192WOct 4 · 10:35O. Stehlik1.44111189102T. Trnka2.63931111123LSep 29 · 17:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113T. Trnka2.205360WSep 29 · 16:05T. Beran2.10142641T. Trnka1.67121111113WSep 29 · 15:35S. Kafka2.50711781T. Trnka1.5011911113LSep 29 · 14:35T. Trnka2.20871191J. Ruzicka1.6111115113WSep 28 · 13:05T. Trnka1.619111114113D. Hons2.2011771642LSep 28 · 12:05T. Trnka1.836590J. Ruzicka1.831111113LSep 28 · 11:05T. Trnka1.5012560M. Flesar2.501411113WSep 28 · 10:05T. Trnka1.6711119113D. Hons2.10751171
M. Holub10
LOct 4 · 11:35M. Holub2.38711691O. Stehlik1.5311611113LOct 4 · 10:05M. Mastera1.531111113M. Holub2.385580LOct 2 · 13:09M. Holub2.5012113872T. Bartik1.471091111113WOct 2 · 12:35T. Bartik1.57117811M. Holub2.2531111113LOct 2 · 11:35M. Holub3.5065111192D. Lengal1.28111188113LOct 2 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.401211113M. Holub2.7510650LSep 26 · 13:24O. Polak1.53111112113M. Holub2.38491451LSep 26 · 12:35O. Polak1.571512811113M. Holub2.25171011882LSep 26 · 11:35M. Holub2.10115671O. Stehlik1.6761111113LSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.5311812113M. Holub2.387111071
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