TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Naida vs Serhii Skachenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118711511119411
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:17 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 88 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Serhii Skachenko at 58.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 9–13 Serhii Skachenko Oleksandr Naida has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:1758.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skachenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-13 in 22
Skachenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1510 vs Skachenko 1532
Skachenko
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 60% vs Skachenko 0%
Naida
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 30% vs Skachenko 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida +2 · Skachenko -5
Skachenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Skachenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skachenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 2.20 / Skachenko 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Skachenko)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240118
Naida2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 82 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Skachenko1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 33 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it60% 24 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida5wins
AwaySkachenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkachenko57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida3Skachenko7n = 10Skachenko took 7 of 10
S2Naida6Skachenko4n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S3Naida4Skachenko6n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S4Naida3Skachenko4n = 7Skachenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaSkachenkoN − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.735.8−1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 933 vs 138 / 33251%41.6%476 / 933 vs 138 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoNaida 2.20/Skachenko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 04:25O. Naida48711811113S. Skachenko3911311592
LSep 28 · 03:55O. Naida355111181S. Skachenko3711213113
WSep 23 · 01:35O. Naida43111011113S. Skachenko34912761
WSep 22 · 00:25O. Naida351113113S. Skachenko2351170
LSep 16 · 02:05O. Naida196850S. Skachenko331111113
LSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida154650S. Skachenko331111113
WAug 28 · 15:35O. Naida514111114113S. Skachenko4811591672
WAug 27 · 23:25O. Naida4181111113S. Skachenko33117871
LAug 18 · 22:05O. Naida29112791S. Skachenko4181111113
LAug 18 · 00:55O. Naida31311981S. Skachenko3711411113
O. Naida10
WOct 4 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.80621161O. Naida1.9111119113WOct 2 · 04:25O. Naida2.38811114113S. Abalmaz1.5311251182WOct 2 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.839970O. Naida1.831111113LOct 2 · 00:25V. Panasenko1.4011119113O. Naida2.75571191WOct 1 · 23:25O. Naida2.001111113R. Gnoevoy1.735580LOct 1 · 22:25O. Melashenko1.6761111113O. Naida2.10115641LOct 1 · 03:35O. Naida1.911251571O. Melashenko1.80141113113LOct 1 · 01:35D. Derevynskyi1.677131211113O. Naida2.10111510752LOct 1 · 00:35O. Naida2.10136581R. Gnoevoy1.67111111113LSep 30 · 23:35T. Ponomarenko2.50121011113O. Naida1.501012791
S. Skachenko10
WOct 4 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.911111113R. Gnoevoy1.804390LSep 29 · 04:25O. Naida2.38711811113S. Skachenko1.5311311592LSep 29 · 02:55S. Skachenko2.63311541V. Panasenko1.4411911113LSep 29 · 00:55R. Gnoevoy1.831211113S. Skachenko1.8310650LSep 28 · 22:55S. Abalmaz1.8311911113S. Skachenko1.83211361LSep 28 · 21:55V. Khamurda2.10101111113S. Skachenko1.67127741WSep 28 · 03:55O. Naida2.205111181S. Skachenko1.6111213113LSep 28 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.731115133S. Skachenko2.00513110WSep 28 · 01:25V. Khamurda1.911081171S. Skachenko1.8012117113LSep 27 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.8371112123S. Skachenko1.8311710101
Upcoming Matches
O. Naida
Oct 5 · 00:55O. Naida1.61T. Ponomarenko2.20—Oct 5 · 01:55O. Naida2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Oct 5 · 03:55O. Naida2.10R. Gnoevoy1.67—Oct 5 · 22:25O. Naida2.20S. Skachenko1.61—Oct 5 · 23:55O. Naida1.61T. Ponomarenko2.20—Oct 6 · 00:55O. Naida2.10R. Gnoevoy1.67—Oct 6 · 01:55O. Naida1.91V. Khamurda1.80—Oct 6 · 03:55O. Naida2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—
S. Skachenko
Oct 5 · 02:25S. Skachenko1.83V. Khamurda1.83—Oct 5 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.53T. Ponomarenko2.38—Oct 5 · 22:25S. Skachenko1.61O. Naida2.20—Oct 5 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.83S. Abalmaz1.83—Oct 6 · 00:25S. Skachenko1.73V. Khamurda2.00—Oct 6 · 02:25S. Skachenko1.53T. Ponomarenko2.38—Oct 6 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.91R. Gnoevoy1.80—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.