TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dalibor Velky Jr vs Borek Moravec 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210113115––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:22 and never touched: 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Borek Moravec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Borek Moravec at 68.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 3–7 Borek Moravec Dalibor Velky Jr has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Velky Jr beat Moravec 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2268.8%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.6pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Moravec
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velky Jr 1597 vs Moravec 1777
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 180 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velky Jr 40% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velky Jr 40% vs Moravec 90%
Moravec
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Velky Jr +2 · Moravec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelky Jr 2.75 / Moravec 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Moravec)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13237415
Velky Jr2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 117 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 58
Moravec1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite73% won 118 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it100% 55 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it90% 85 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVelky Jr3wins
AwayMoravec7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelky Jrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMoravec75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velky Jr2Moravec8n = 10Moravec took 8 of 10
S2Velky Jr7Moravec3n = 10Velky Jr took 7 of 10
S3Velky Jr4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Velky Jr2Moravec7n = 9Moravec took 7 of 9
S5Velky Jr2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVelky JrMoravecV − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.242.0−5.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelky JrMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 591 vs 280 / 47949.6%58.5%293 / 591 vs 280 / 479Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecVelky Jr 2.75/Moravec 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Velky Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 09:25D. Velky Jr4391211113B. Moravec291110351
WOct 3 · 06:45D. Velky Jr39311113113B. Moravec4611981172
LOct 1 · 14:40D. Velky Jr219570B. Moravec331111113
LJul 30 · 17:28D. Velky Jr48881111102B. Moravec51111198123
LJul 13 · 17:15D. Velky Jr29511581B. Moravec4111811113
WJul 13 · 14:45D. Velky Jr43113117113B. Moravec4471181172
LJun 26 · 17:15D. Velky Jr47111171082B. Moravec51891112113
LJun 26 · 13:40D. Velky Jr30911461B. Moravec4011711113
LMay 1 · 07:15D. Velky Jr331112551B. Moravec45131011113
LApr 28 · 13:40D. Velky Jr29711651B. Moravec4011711113
D. Velky Jr10
WOct 3 · 09:45M. Macurak1.67811231D. Velky Jr2.1011711113WOct 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.671212511113P. Marsalek2.10101411682WOct 3 · 06:45B. Moravec1.2811981172D. Velky Jr3.50311113113LOct 3 · 06:15F. Chaloupka1.5011911113D. Velky Jr2.50911591LOct 1 · 16:35F. Chaloupka1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.208760LOct 1 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.389840K. Kleprlik1.531111113LOct 1 · 14:40B. Moravec1.361111113D. Velky Jr3.009570LOct 1 · 14:10F. Chaloupka1.67111511133D. Velky Jr2.107175111LOct 1 · 13:05B. Mrowetz1.9151111113D. Velky Jr1.80116171WOct 1 · 11:40D. Velky Jr2.201112113B. Mrowetz1.6181090
B. Moravec10
WOct 3 · 07:45B. Moravec1.7311114113F. Chaloupka2.00551191LOct 3 · 06:45B. Moravec1.2811981172D. Velky Jr3.50311113113WOct 3 · 05:45B. Moravec1.44111111113P. Marsalek2.63913421WOct 1 · 17:05B. Moravec1.111111113K. Kleprlik6.005260WOct 1 · 15:40B. Moravec1.50118115113F. Chaloupka2.5051191162WOct 1 · 14:40B. Moravec1.361111113D. Velky Jr3.009570WOct 1 · 13:40B. Moravec1.361111113K. Kleprlik3.002590WSep 30 · 17:14B. Moravec1.6761111113D. Stusek2.10118941WSep 30 · 15:45B. Moravec1.531111113F. Chaloupka2.389770WSep 30 · 14:45B. Moravec1.83116128123J. Pribyl1.834111011102
Upcoming Matches
D. Velky Jr
B. Moravec
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.