TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Borek Moravec vs Dalibor Velky Jr 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 11
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113911811113711
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:37 and never touched: 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Borek Moravec at 77.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 7–2 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3777.5%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 0.3pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Moravec
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1796 vs Velky Jr 1578
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 218 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 100% vs Velky Jr 0%
Moravec
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 100% vs Velky Jr 30%
Moravec
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +11 · Velky Jr -6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velky Jr form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.285 / Velky Jr 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Moravec)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13235482
Moravec1.28
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 11
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 118 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it100% 55 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it90% 85 of 94
Velky Jr3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 117 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMoravec7wins
AwayVelky Jr2wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMoravec leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec85.7%6 of 7
AwayVelky Jrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec7Velky Jr2n = 9Moravec took 7 of 9
S2Moravec3Velky Jr6n = 9Velky Jr took 6 of 9
S3Moravec6Velky Jr3n = 9Moravec took 6 of 9
S4Moravec7Velky Jr1n = 8Moravec took 7 of 8
S5Moravec2Velky Jr2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMoravecVelky JrM − VBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match43.435.4+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 478 vs 292 / 59058.6%49.5%280 / 478 vs 292 / 590Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.28/Velky Jr 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.5%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Velky Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 3 · 06:45B. Moravec4611981172D. Velky Jr39311113113
WOct 1 · 14:40B. Moravec331111113D. Velky Jr219570
WJul 30 · 17:28B. Moravec51111198123D. Velky Jr48881111102
WJul 13 · 17:15B. Moravec4111811113D. Velky Jr29511581
LJul 13 · 14:45B. Moravec4471181172D. Velky Jr43113117113
WJun 26 · 17:15B. Moravec51891112113D. Velky Jr47111171082
WJun 26 · 13:40B. Moravec4011711113D. Velky Jr30911461
WMay 1 · 07:15B. Moravec45131011113D. Velky Jr331112551
WApr 28 · 13:40B. Moravec4011711113D. Velky Jr29711651
B. Moravec10
WOct 3 · 07:45B. Moravec1.7311114113F. Chaloupka2.00551191WOct 3 · 05:45B. Moravec1.44111111113P. Marsalek2.63913421WOct 1 · 17:05B. Moravec1.111111113K. Kleprlik6.005260WOct 1 · 15:40B. Moravec1.50118115113F. Chaloupka2.5051191162WOct 1 · 14:40B. Moravec1.361111113D. Velky Jr3.009570WOct 1 · 13:40B. Moravec1.361111113K. Kleprlik3.002590WSep 30 · 17:14B. Moravec1.6761111113D. Stusek2.10118941WSep 30 · 15:45B. Moravec1.531111113F. Chaloupka2.389770WSep 30 · 14:45B. Moravec1.83116128123J. Pribyl1.834111011102WSep 30 · 13:45B. Moravec1.8391111123D. Stusek1.831147101
D. Velky Jr10
WOct 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.671212511113P. Marsalek2.10101411682LOct 3 · 06:15F. Chaloupka1.5011911113D. Velky Jr2.50911591LOct 1 · 16:35F. Chaloupka1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.208760LOct 1 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.389840K. Kleprlik1.531111113LOct 1 · 14:40B. Moravec1.361111113D. Velky Jr3.009570LOct 1 · 14:10F. Chaloupka1.67111511133D. Velky Jr2.107175111LOct 1 · 13:05B. Mrowetz1.9151111113D. Velky Jr1.80116171WOct 1 · 11:40D. Velky Jr2.201112113B. Mrowetz1.6181090WOct 1 · 10:40D. Velky Jr1.911511133L. Dzida1.80138110LOct 1 · 09:40D. Velky Jr1.67911190T. Kindl2.101113213
Upcoming Matches
B. Moravec
Nothing scheduled
D. Velky Jr
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