TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Krames Sr vs Michal Makara 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118112116––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:03 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krames Sr to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krames Sr above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Jan Krames Sr at 64.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krames Sr 27–17 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 17 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0364.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krames Sr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-17 in 44
Krames Sr
Correct
gap of 10 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krames Sr 1788 vs Makara 1694
Krames Sr
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krames Sr 60% vs Makara 80%
Makara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krames Sr 60% vs Makara 80%
Makara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krames Sr +2 · Makara +3
Makara
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Krames Sr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrames Sr 1.533 / Makara 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Krames Sr)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234758
Krames Sr1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 117 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it88% 68 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it75% 99 of 132
Makara2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 152 of 337
Down 0–1, comes back26% 46 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrames Sr6wins
AwayMakara4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrames Sr leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrames Sr100%5 of 5
AwayMakara80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krames Sr5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S2Krames Sr4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S3Krames Sr7Makara3n = 10Krames Sr took 7 of 10
S4Krames Sr5Makara2n = 7Krames Sr took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrames SrMakaraK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.434.2+5.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrames SrMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 703 vs 504 / 105456.2%47.8%395 / 703 vs 504 / 1054Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Krames SrKrames Sr 1.53/Makara 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Krames Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krames Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 06:15J. Krames Sr4291111113M. Makara27118261
WSep 26 · 18:15J. Krames Sr331111113M. Makara205870
WSep 12 · 18:45J. Krames Sr46114911113M. Makara3831111672
LAug 30 · 18:45J. Krames Sr4898111192M. Makara46111185113
WAug 30 · 09:45J. Krames Sr4211911113M. Makara28811631
WAug 3 · 16:43J. Krames Sr361114113M. Makara2451270
WAug 3 · 13:45J. Krames Sr3911611113M. Makara34611891
LJun 14 · 13:30J. Krames Sr33815100M. Makara401117123
LJun 5 · 20:00J. Krames Sr4181211101M. Makara4411147123
LJun 2 · 16:00J. Krames Sr34911681M. Makara4111811113
J. Krames Sr10
WOct 3 · 05:15J. Krames Sr1.611191114113L. Veigl2.2081121662WOct 1 · 16:13J. Krames Sr1.4411119113O. Mezera2.63931161LOct 1 · 15:15O. Mezera4.00411148113J. Krames Sr1.22118121192WOct 1 · 14:45J. Krames Sr1.5011117113M. Vyskocil2.50371171LOct 1 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.6111711982L. Rulc2.20611711113WSep 29 · 16:18J. Krames Sr1.401311113M. Kocvara2.7511550LSep 29 · 15:15M. Kocvara2.7512149113J. Krames Sr1.4010121191WSep 29 · 14:45J. Krames Sr1.2811611113O. Mezera3.50711391WSep 29 · 13:45J. Krames Sr2.2012711123L. Heinzl1.6110113101LSep 28 · 12:18J. Krames Sr1.7311711111L. Veigl2.0091113133
M. Makara10
WOct 3 · 05:45O. Mezera2.2081181192M. Makara1.61114114113WOct 2 · 16:45M. Makara1.67118118113M. Vyskocil2.1081131192WOct 2 · 15:45M. Makara1.831411113T. Liska1.8312870LOct 2 · 14:15M. Vyskocil2.25911119113M. Makara1.5711661162WOct 2 · 13:45O. Mezera2.20651171M. Makara1.6111119113WSep 29 · 13:09T. Liska1.8398111152M. Makara1.83111197113WSep 29 · 11:30L. Rulc1.91101490M. Makara1.801216113WSep 29 · 11:00M. Makara1.6714611163T. Liska2.1012118141LSep 29 · 10:00M. Makara2.2081111692L. Dobias1.61119911113WSep 28 · 16:23A. Radkovsky2.10117991M. Makara1.6741111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Krames Sr
Nothing scheduled
M. Makara
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