TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykyta Smyrnov vs Nazar Kovalchuk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117411115118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 68 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 63.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 21–45 Nazar Kovalchuk Mykyta Smyrnov has won 21 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5263.7%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.5pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-45 in 66
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 24 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1525 vs Kovalchuk 1675
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 60% vs Kovalchuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 50% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov -1 · Kovalchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 2.375 / Kovalchuk 1.533
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234528
Smyrnov2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 94 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 80
Kovalchuk1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 171 of 293
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it73% 112 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov28.6%2 of 7
AwayKovalchuk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Smyrnov5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyrnov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Smyrnov3Kovalchuk5n = 8Kovalchuk took 5 of 8
S5Smyrnov2Kovalchuk3n = 5Kovalchuk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovKovalchukS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.7−0.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime418 / 864 vs 410 / 78748.4%52.1%418 / 864 vs 410 / 787Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukSmyrnov 2.38/Kovalchuk 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 22:15M. Smyrnov331111113N. Kovalchuk157260
WSep 30 · 03:15M. Smyrnov55616814113N. Kovalchuk571114111292
LSep 23 · 21:15M. Smyrnov401191191N. Kovalchuk4271113113
LSep 11 · 13:35M. Smyrnov4011661162N. Kovalchuk46611117113
WAug 26 · 03:15M. Smyrnov331111113N. Kovalchuk247890
LAug 24 · 22:15M. Smyrnov48111168122N. Kovalchuk54991111143
LAug 18 · 03:15M. Smyrnov37119981N. Kovalchuk4291111113
LAug 9 · 10:05M. Smyrnov359101241N. Kovalchuk44111210113
LAug 7 · 01:45M. Smyrnov4111911282N. Kovalchuk47711711113
WAug 5 · 23:15M. Smyrnov50911811113N. Kovalchuk4611811972
M. Smyrnov10
WOct 3 · 15:05O. Mitla1.9171280M. Smyrnov1.801114113LOct 3 · 13:05V. Plishylo1.3031313113M. Smyrnov3.4011111121WOct 2 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.501113913113R. Lazebnyi1.50611111592WOct 2 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.1081111672M. Smyrnov1.67115311113WOct 1 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.20114891M. Smyrnov1.6181111113LOct 1 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.80711391O. Mitla1.9111411113LOct 1 · 21:15O. Hura1.739101111113M. Smyrnov2.0011126242LOct 1 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.009790O. Hura1.731111113WOct 1 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.001151181M. Smyrnov1.7313114113LSep 30 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10111211113M. Smyrnov1.67614241
N. Kovalchuk10
LOct 3 · 16:05Y. Shmyndra2.20121188123N. Kovalchuk1.611081111112WOct 3 · 12:05O. Mitla2.7521111262N. Kovalchuk1.40118511113WOct 2 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4411117682N. Kovalchuk2.63511111113LOct 2 · 01:30D. Zeniuk1.301311113N. Kovalchuk3.4011590LOct 2 · 00:00I. Kozachuk1.831111113N. Kovalchuk1.838990WOct 1 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.731211871N. Kovalchuk2.0014811113LOct 1 · 20:00S. Rak1.361111113N. Kovalchuk3.008870WOct 1 · 02:45O. Mitla2.7581280N. Kovalchuk1.401114113WOct 1 · 01:45O. Hura2.2511911652N. Kovalchuk1.57611811113LOct 1 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.20611118123N. Kovalchuk1.61119911102
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