TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ivo Taichman vs Roman Guliak 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511118115911611
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:55 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Guliak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIvo Taichman above · Roman Guliak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Roman Guliak at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ivo Taichman 22–22 Roman Guliak Dead even across their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Guliak beat Taichman 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5554.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 3.1pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Guliak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-22 in 44
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Taichman 1470 vs Guliak 1416
Taichman
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Taichman 40% vs Guliak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Taichman 40% vs Guliak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Taichman -1 · Guliak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Guliak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guliak form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTaichman 1.95 / Guliak 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Taichman)-5.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13234032
Taichman1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 71 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Guliak1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it76% 34 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTaichman6wins
AwayGuliak4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTaichman leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTaichman75%3 of 4
AwayGuliak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Taichman4Guliak6n = 10Guliak took 6 of 10
S2Taichman4Guliak6n = 10Guliak took 6 of 10
S3Taichman7Guliak3n = 10Taichman took 7 of 10
S4Taichman3Guliak6n = 9Guliak took 6 of 9
S5Taichman4Guliak0n = 4Taichman took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTaichmanGuliakT − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.539.4−1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTaichmanGuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 549 vs 336 / 67551.6%49.8%283 / 549 vs 336 / 675Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GuliakTaichman 1.95/Guliak 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Guliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Guliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 14:00I. Taichman21151141R. Guliak4211119113
LSep 26 · 06:00I. Taichman321171041R. Guliak3951112113
LSep 23 · 19:30I. Taichman27921151R. Guliak4211119113
WSep 18 · 16:30I. Taichman501011117113R. Guliak4712881182
WAug 8 · 12:30I. Taichman351311113R. Guliak2711790
WJun 25 · 19:00I. Taichman501011612113R. Guliak39124111022
LJun 20 · 15:30I. Taichman341161161R. Guliak3813113113
WJun 6 · 08:30I. Taichman43113711113R. Guliak4591111682
WJun 3 · 14:30I. Taichman451111111113R. Guliak4991191372
WJun 2 · 18:00I. Taichman3851111113R. Guliak26112851
I. Taichman10
LOct 2 · 16:00I. Taichman2.2551111242F. Zurek1.57119911113WOct 2 · 15:30T. Milkov2.103119111I. Taichman1.6711311133LOct 2 · 14:00I. Taichman1.73151141R. Guliak2.0011119113WOct 1 · 20:58R. Adam1.6791111892I. Taichman2.10116611113LOct 1 · 20:30I. Taichman2.25711781F. Zurek1.5711911113WOct 1 · 19:00I. Taichman2.2571111113R. Adam1.57117671LOct 1 · 18:00M. Blejchar1.531311143I. Taichman2.38115120WSep 29 · 21:00P. Hanel2.0066111192I. Taichman1.73111162113LSep 29 · 20:30I. Taichman2.50310100T. Milota1.501112123LSep 29 · 19:00I. Taichman2.20511771M. Kowolowski1.6111411113
R. Guliak10
LOct 2 · 16:30R. Guliak2.209980T. Milkov1.611111113LOct 2 · 15:00R. Guliak2.25661171F. Zurek1.5711115113WOct 2 · 14:00I. Taichman1.73151141R. Guliak2.0011119113LSep 26 · 09:30R. Guliak2.2511611462F. Zurek1.57511811113WSep 26 · 08:30R. Guliak1.441111123D. Priesol2.6389100LSep 26 · 07:00R. Guliak2.009960F. Zurek1.731111113WSep 26 · 06:00I. Taichman1.671171041R. Guliak2.1051112113LSep 23 · 21:28E. Gebek1.441114123R. Guliak2.63912100WSep 23 · 20:30M. Kowolowski1.5383111492R. Guliak2.381111612113WSep 23 · 19:30R. Guliak2.5011119113I. Taichman1.50921151
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