TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Sabuka vs Marian Melisek 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118711118117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched: 72.1% is still 72.1%
Graded at full timeMarian Melisek to win
72.1%
72.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Marian Melisek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Marian Melisek at 72.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 1–6 Marian Melisek David Sabuka has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2872.1%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 2.9pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Melisek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Melisek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1384 vs Melisek 1417
Melisek
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 60% vs Melisek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 60% vs Melisek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +2 · Melisek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Melisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 3.25 / Melisek 1.333
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Melisek)-2.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228977
Sabuka3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 21 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Melisek1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 43 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 36 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSabuka1wins
AwayMelisek6wins
Melisek leads 6–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSabukan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMelisek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sabuka1Melisek6n = 7Melisek took 6 of 7
S2Sabuka1Melisek6n = 7Melisek took 6 of 7
S3Sabuka4Melisek3n = 7Sabuka took 4 of 7
S4Sabuka1Melisek4n = 5Melisek took 4 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricSabukaMelisekS − MBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match28.738.9−10.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaMelisekBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 524 vs 225 / 46347.9%48.6%251 / 524 vs 225 / 463Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekSabuka 3.25/Melisek 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.1%
Melisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 23 · 12:00D. Sabuka30761161M. Melisek3911116113
LJul 23 · 11:00D. Sabuka24251161M. Melisek4211119113
LJul 22 · 12:33D. Sabuka28491141M. Melisek4211119113
LJul 22 · 10:30D. Sabuka249960M. Melisek331111113
LMay 11 · 11:30D. Sabuka188460M. Melisek331111113
LMay 4 · 13:04D. Sabuka38159861M. Melisek46131111113
WMay 4 · 12:00D. Sabuka3951112113M. Melisek371191071
D. Sabuka10
WOct 2 · 09:30D. Sabuka1.5711114113J. Jnr2.25271191WSep 30 · 09:08D. Sabuka2.001214123M. Obraz1.731012100LSep 30 · 08:00M. Obraz1.8311711113D. Sabuka1.83811791LSep 30 · 07:00A. Dvoracek1.73118118123D. Sabuka2.00811611102WSep 30 · 05:30P. Cizek1.8351111692D. Sabuka1.83115611113WSep 28 · 09:10D. Sabuka1.7371115113M. Cmil2.001181381WSep 28 · 08:00D. Sabuka1.837101311113L. Boura1.83111211962WSep 28 · 06:30M. Cmil1.8311461232D. Sabuka1.838111110113LSep 28 · 06:00M. Vydra2.25811116113D. Sabuka1.5711471182LSep 26 · 20:29D. Sabuka1.80631161J. Seeman1.9111115113
M. Melisek10
WOct 2 · 10:00M. Hasman1.736101191M. Melisek2.0011124113LOct 1 · 13:00A. Dvoracek1.44911116113M. Melisek2.6311761162WOct 1 · 11:30J. Puk2.505670M. Melisek1.501111113WOct 1 · 11:00M. Melisek1.5381111113J. Jnr2.38116481LOct 1 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63111951A. Dvoracek1.4451111113WSep 25 · 16:59M. Melisek1.731111113K. Polak2.006770WSep 25 · 16:00K. Polak1.67134881M. Melisek2.10111111113LSep 25 · 15:00T. Stejskal1.731311113M. Melisek2.0011480LSep 25 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.33119711113M. Melisek3.2571111862WSep 23 · 13:03M. Melisek1.6711117113J. Blazek2.10891191
Upcoming Matches
D. Sabuka
Nothing scheduled
M. Melisek
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