TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Jakub Kaczmarek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111412811116911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:51 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kaczmarek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
5111412811116911
H2H Jakub Nowak 38–37 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 37 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5154.0%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
short by 0.1pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-37 in 75
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1305 vs Kaczmarek 1335
Kaczmarek
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Kaczmarek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 50% vs Kaczmarek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak +1 · Kaczmarek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kaczmarek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 1.80 / Kaczmarek 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaczmarek)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13227105
Nowak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 71 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 47 of 68
Kaczmarek1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 175 of 496
Down 0–1, comes back17% 53 of 306
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak6wins
AwayKaczmarek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak100%5 of 5
AwayKaczmarek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S2Nowak5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowak6Kaczmarek4n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Nowak3Kaczmarek2n = 5Nowak took 3 of 5
S5Nowak2Kaczmarek1n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakKaczmarekN − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.237.3+2.9per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime673 / 1758 vs 508 / 134738.3%37.7%673 / 1758 vs 508 / 1347Avg sets wonper match1.81.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaczmarekNowak 1.80/Kaczmarek 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaczmarek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 08:45J. Nowak341111123J. Kaczmarek2394100
LSep 24 · 08:45J. Nowak55714151182J. Kaczmarek6011121313113
LSep 15 · 07:35J. Nowak4211813101J. Kaczmarek47131111123
WAug 26 · 06:00J. Nowak43101111113J. Kaczmarek31124871
LAug 12 · 03:35J. Nowak2449110J. Kaczmarek351111133
WAug 4 · 07:35J. Nowak531211511143J. Kaczmarek551013119122
LJul 17 · 02:45J. Nowak3098130J. Kaczmarek371111153
WJul 7 · 07:10J. Nowak531113711113J. Kaczmarek4791511842
WJun 10 · 05:10J. Nowak351111133J. Kaczmarek2146110
WJun 4 · 07:35J. Nowak331111113J. Kaczmarek176740
J. Nowak10
WOct 1 · 08:45W. Ptak1.758111011102J. Nowak1.95118128123LOct 1 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.261111113J. Nowak3.503480WOct 1 · 05:55W. Glanowski2.0010890J. Nowak1.701211113LSep 30 · 02:35J. Nowak2.0088111162P. Gumulinski1.73111165113LSep 30 · 01:00J. Nowak1.8311119592P. Slosarczyk1.83961111113WSep 29 · 23:45J. Nowak1.911111113O. Sokolowski1.808790LSep 29 · 22:10J. Nowak2.381489111M. Koczyba1.53121111133WSep 29 · 21:00J. Nowak2.5010111110113L. Oracz1.5012761282LSep 29 · 19:40O. Sokolowski1.731114114113J. Nowak2.00712131192WSep 29 · 18:55P. Slosarczyk2.10111141092J. Nowak1.67431112113
J. Kaczmarek10
LOct 1 · 07:55W. Glanowski1.90711916113J. Kaczmarek1.80116111492WOct 1 · 07:10W. Ptak1.708670J. Kaczmarek2.001111113LOct 1 · 05:30R. Niemiec1.4751112113J. Kaczmarek2.401151031WSep 30 · 08:20W. Urban2.037911101J. Kaczmarek1.7111117123LSep 30 · 07:35M. Guzik1.371111113J. Kaczmarek2.755940LSep 30 · 05:35P. Adamus1.441111113J. Kaczmarek2.628490WSep 30 · 04:50M. Lebek1.3211750J. Kaczmarek3.051311113WSep 30 · 03:10M. Cesarz3.7551050J. Kaczmarek1.241112113WSep 29 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek1.51111158113M. Tkocz2.4187111172WSep 29 · 18:45M. Adamus1.65761181J. Kaczmarek2.0511116113
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