TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Niemiec vs Jakub Kaczmarek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111151210113––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:20 and never touched: 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Niemiec to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
5111151210113––
H2H Rafal Niemiec 4–5 Jakub Kaczmarek Rafal Niemiec has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2063.9%Our read68.0%to break even at 1.47
short by 4.1pp68.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.47 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (62%)
Niemiec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niemiec 1462 vs Kaczmarek 1334
Niemiec
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niemiec 100% vs Kaczmarek 60%
Niemiec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niemiec 80% vs Kaczmarek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Niemiec +5 · Kaczmarek +1
Niemiec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Niemiec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiemiec 1.47 / Kaczmarek 2.40
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Niemiec)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221760
Niemiec1.47
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 115 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it95% 59 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it85% 78 of 92
Kaczmarek2.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 175 of 496
Down 0–1, comes back17% 53 of 306
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeNiemiec4wins
AwayKaczmarek5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKaczmarek leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiemiecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKaczmarek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niemiec2Kaczmarek7n = 9Kaczmarek took 7 of 9
S2Niemiec6Kaczmarek3n = 9Niemiec took 6 of 9
S3Niemiec3Kaczmarek6n = 9Kaczmarek took 6 of 9
S4Niemiec3Kaczmarek5n = 8Kaczmarek took 5 of 8
S5Niemiec3Kaczmarek1n = 4Niemiec took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricNiemiecKaczmarekN − KBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match40.943.3−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiemiecKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 282 vs 507 / 134462.1%37.7%175 / 282 vs 507 / 1344Avg sets wonper match2.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.335.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NiemiecNiemiec 1.47/Kaczmarek 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Niemiec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Niemiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 09:00R. Niemiec3811412113J. Kaczmarek326111051
LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec31611951J. Kaczmarek4111811113
LSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec4981411972J. Kaczmarek541112911113
WAug 5 · 11:50R. Niemiec541110911133J. Kaczmarek49712118112
LAug 5 · 03:50R. Niemiec2459100J. Kaczmarek341111123
LJul 30 · 09:10R. Niemiec37813881J. Kaczmarek44111111113
LJul 27 · 11:50R. Niemiec33811591J. Kaczmarek4011711113
WJun 22 · 13:30R. Niemiec50811119113J. Kaczmarek4511951192
WJun 22 · 07:20R. Niemiec52711716113J. Kaczmarek51118111472
R. Niemiec10
WOct 1 · 06:45R. Niemiec1.65111238113W. Glanowski2.13910111132WSep 28 · 16:40R. Niemiec1.551111113W. Tobiasz2.257980WSep 28 · 15:05G. Wichowski2.0512111061R. Niemiec1.6914612113WSep 28 · 14:20O. Jadach2.04810110R. Niemiec1.701112133WSep 28 · 13:30R. Niemiec1.98561111113P. Slosarczyk1.7511116962WSep 28 · 12:20R. Niemiec1.651111113Y. Fomin2.103560LSep 28 · 10:40R. Niemiec1.7587111192W. Tobiasz1.90111173113LSep 28 · 09:05G. Wichowski1.6011711113R. Niemiec2.15511591WSep 28 · 08:20Y. Fomin2.501135101R. Niemiec1.4571111123WSep 28 · 07:30R. Niemiec1.601111113P. Slosarczyk2.227880
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 30 · 08:20W. Urban2.037911101J. Kaczmarek1.7111117123LSep 30 · 07:35M. Guzik1.371111113J. Kaczmarek2.755940LSep 30 · 05:35P. Adamus1.441111113J. Kaczmarek2.628490WSep 30 · 04:50M. Lebek1.3211750J. Kaczmarek3.051311113WSep 30 · 03:10M. Cesarz3.7551050J. Kaczmarek1.241112113WSep 29 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek1.51111158113M. Tkocz2.4187111172WSep 29 · 18:45M. Adamus1.65761181J. Kaczmarek2.0511116113WSep 29 · 18:00P. Kurek1.44101111632J. Kaczmarek2.60129811113LSep 29 · 17:10J. Kaczmarek1.83281161O. Sokolowski1.8711115113WSep 29 · 16:00J. Kaczmarek2.451111123M. Sikon1.4598100
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