TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kwapis vs Maciej Kolek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711116611116711
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kwapis to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
711116611116711
H2H Jakub Kwapis 1–1 Maciej Kolek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0454.0%Our read52.6%to break even at 1.90
clears by 1.4pp52.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.90 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (51%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kwapis 1676 vs Kolek 1656
Kwapis
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwapis 80% vs Kolek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwapis 80% vs Kolek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwapis +3 · Kolek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kwapis) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwapis 1.90 / Kolek 1.81
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kwapis)+1.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13226484
Kwapis1.90
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Kolek1.81
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 258 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it94% 87 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it81% 193 of 239
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKwapis1wins
AwayKolek1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKwapisKolekKwapis − KolekBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match31.532.5−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwapisKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 517 vs 748 / 148546.2%50.4%239 / 517 vs 748 / 1485Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KwapisKwapis 1.90/Kolek 1.81
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kwapis · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 26 · 22:55J. Kwapis236980M. Kolek331111113
WJul 8 · 11:20J. Kwapis4071111113M. Kolek32119481
J. Kwapis10
LOct 1 · 09:00J. Kwapis1.5257121182M. Kolek2.301111109113WOct 1 · 06:25K. Wisniewski2.105930J. Kwapis1.661111113WOct 1 · 05:35M. Olbrycht1.676560J. Kwapis2.101111113WOct 1 · 04:50J. Kwapis1.6311911113K. Kapik2.16511691LOct 1 · 03:40J. Kwapis—1181110102P. Jendrzejewski—711912123WSep 24 · 14:15K. Kapik1.73912381J. Kwapis1.98111011113WSep 24 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz1.6310990J. Kwapis2.161211113WSep 24 · 11:20J. Zochniak2.3091150J. Kwapis1.551113113WSep 24 · 10:30M. Rutkowski1.7073120J. Kwapis2.001111143WSep 24 · 09:00M. Malachowski2.0081191182J. Kwapis1.70115117113
M. Kolek10
WOct 1 · 09:00J. Kwapis1.5257121182M. Kolek2.301111109113WOct 1 · 07:15K. Kapik1.65115129122M. Kolek2.052111011143WOct 1 · 05:15K. Wisniewski1.85271191M. Kolek1.8511116113WOct 1 · 04:25P. Jendrzejewski1.6179150M. Kolek2.151111173LOct 1 · 03:00M. Olbrycht1.9051311113M. Kolek1.801111761WSep 30 · 13:55M. Zwolinski4.958870M. Kolek1.121111113WSep 30 · 13:05R. Stapor2.5281141142M. Kolek1.47115117113LSep 30 · 12:15M. Kolek1.858141191J. Zochniak1.8011167113LSep 30 · 10:35M. Kolek1.4096111162M. Minda2.70111136113WSep 30 · 09:50B. Czerwinski2.05115771M. Kolek1.6961111113
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