TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Czerwinski vs Maciej Kolek 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116511711711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched: 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
116511711711––
H2H Bartosz Czerwinski 7–12 Maciej Kolek Bartosz Czerwinski has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4758.0%Our read59.2%to break even at 1.69
short by 1.2pp59.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.69 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.69 (55%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Kolek
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Czerwinski 1561 vs Kolek 1637
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Czerwinski 80% vs Kolek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Czerwinski 60% vs Kolek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Czerwinski +3 · Kolek +1
Czerwinski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCzerwinski 2.05 / Kolek 1.69
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kolek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13217133
Czerwinski2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 29)
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog40% won 38 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back26% 14 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Kolek1.69
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 257 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it94% 87 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it81% 192 of 237
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCzerwinski3wins
AwayKolek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCzerwinski25%1 of 4
AwayKolek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Czerwinski4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Czerwinski4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S3Czerwinski7Kolek3n = 10Czerwinski took 7 of 10
S4Czerwinski3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S5Czerwinski1Kolek3n = 4Kolek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCzerwinskiKolekC − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.042.8−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCzerwinskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 1032 vs 742 / 147648.3%50.3%498 / 1032 vs 742 / 1476Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolekCzerwinski 2.05/Kolek 1.69
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 09:50B. Czerwinski4612511992M. Kolek521011911113
LSep 3 · 09:00B. Czerwinski29711561M. Kolek4011711113
LJun 29 · 08:30B. Czerwinski398911111M. Kolek4111116133
WJun 29 · 06:00B. Czerwinski50911118113M. Kolek4311591172
LJun 25 · 06:25B. Czerwinski31116951M. Kolek4181111113
WJun 25 · 04:00B. Czerwinski4071111113M. Kolek29117651
LJun 19 · 06:50B. Czerwinski4571111882M. Kolek50119811113
WJun 19 · 04:25B. Czerwinski4111811113M. Kolek33911761
LJun 16 · 07:20B. Czerwinski391287121M. Kolek46101111143
LJun 16 · 04:55B. Czerwinski50712111282M. Kolek531114710113
B. Czerwinski10
WSep 29 · 08:35A. Sobel1.9041090B. Czerwinski1.801112113WSep 29 · 07:20B. Czerwinski1.271111113B. Warpas3.309340WSep 29 · 06:05F. Krcil1.4581111922B. Czerwinski2.59118411113LSep 29 · 04:55M. Minda2.356121111113B. Czerwinski1.5311145882WSep 29 · 03:25M. Kukawka—3780B. Czerwinski—1111113WSep 28 · 14:20B. Czerwinski1.968111012143M. Minda1.761181210122LSep 28 · 12:40J. Zochniak2.3061111113B. Czerwinski1.57111791WSep 28 · 11:50A. Sobel1.8045100B. Czerwinski1.851111123LSep 28 · 11:00B. Czerwinski2.00111155132D. Solilo1.73381111153LSep 28 · 09:50B. Czerwinski2.0812511992M. Kolek1.681011911113
M. Kolek10
WSep 29 · 14:40M. Kolek1.291311113F. Krcil3.3211760LSep 29 · 13:05M. Kolek1.6111961162D. Solilo2.15811119113WSep 29 · 11:50M. Kolek1.58111111113J. Krawczyk2.25134971WSep 29 · 10:10M. Kolek1.651111108133A. Sobel2.05591211112WSep 29 · 09:00M. Kolek1.6511811113M. Minda2.05911571LSep 29 · 07:40K. Wisniewski1.9111115113M. Kolek1.78861171LSep 29 · 06:50M. Miastowski1.45111110123M. Kolek2.506812101LSep 29 · 06:00M. Kolek2.50125781M. Sklensky1.47101111113WSep 29 · 04:25M. Kolek2.7011119113K. Wloczko1.40681141WSep 28 · 09:50B. Czerwinski2.0812511992M. Kolek1.681011911113
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