TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Kolek vs Michal Minda 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911611113116611
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched: 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
911611113116611
H2H Maciej Kolek 23–18 Michal Minda Michal Minda has won 18 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2670.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-18 in 41
Kolek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1647 vs Minda 1506
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 80% vs Minda 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Minda 80%
Minda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +2 · Minda +4
Minda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Kolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Minda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (37%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.40 / Minda 2.70
Signal prob.71% / 30%
Edge (Kolek)-0.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13221597
Kolek1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 257 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it94% 87 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it81% 192 of 237
Minda2.70
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 133 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back24% 49 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek7wins
AwayMinda3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek100%6 of 6
AwayMinda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek6Minda4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Kolek6Minda4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S3Kolek6Minda4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S4Kolek5Minda2n = 7Kolek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekMindaK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.735.1+3.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekMindaBasisWin rate · lifetime743 / 1478 vs 1018 / 197950.3%51.4%743 / 1478 vs 1018 / 1979Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.40/Minda 2.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.5%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Minda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 09:00M. Kolek4111811113M. Minda32911571
WSep 28 · 10:35M. Kolek351113113M. Minda2471160
LSep 21 · 17:20M. Kolek205690M. Minda331111113
WSep 16 · 16:55M. Kolek331111113M. Minda198650
WAug 31 · 05:15M. Kolek3911611113M. Minda30711481
WAug 28 · 04:00M. Kolek47111168113M. Minda4999111192
LAug 19 · 04:50M. Kolek541111811132M. Minda53139115153
LAug 13 · 08:10M. Kolek31511781M. Minda3711411113
WAug 10 · 07:15M. Kolek4291111113M. Minda33118861
WJul 21 · 10:35M. Kolek4511814123M. Minda4181112101
M. Kolek10
WSep 30 · 09:50B. Czerwinski2.05115771M. Kolek1.6961111113WSep 29 · 14:40M. Kolek1.291311113F. Krcil3.3211760LSep 29 · 13:05M. Kolek1.6111961162D. Solilo2.15811119113WSep 29 · 11:50M. Kolek1.58111111113J. Krawczyk2.25134971WSep 29 · 10:10M. Kolek1.651111108133A. Sobel2.05591211112WSep 29 · 09:00M. Kolek1.6511811113M. Minda2.05911571LSep 29 · 07:40K. Wisniewski1.9111115113M. Kolek1.78861171LSep 29 · 06:50M. Miastowski1.45111110123M. Kolek2.506812101LSep 29 · 06:00M. Kolek2.50125781M. Sklensky1.47101111113WSep 29 · 04:25M. Kolek2.7011119113K. Wloczko1.40681141
M. Minda10
WSep 30 · 09:00R. Stapor2.01711731M. Minda1.6311411113WSep 29 · 14:20J. Krawczyk1.90119156102M. Minda1.813111311123WSep 29 · 13:30F. Krcil1.70791191M. Minda2.0011117113WSep 29 · 11:25A. Sobel1.53711861M. Minda2.3511611113LSep 29 · 10:35D. Solilo1.9011112133M. Minda1.806811111LSep 29 · 09:00M. Kolek1.6511811113M. Minda2.05911571WSep 29 · 08:10M. Minda1.401511109113B. Warpas2.65137121152WSep 29 · 06:30M. Kukawka1.7012117242M. Minda1.951071111113WSep 29 · 05:40A. Sobel1.576770M. Minda2.201111113WSep 29 · 04:55M. Minda2.356121111113B. Czerwinski1.5311145882
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