TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliwier Sokolowski vs Lukasz Oracz 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161171210––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:23 and never touched: 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
1161171210––––
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 5–10 Lukasz Oracz Oliwier Sokolowski has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Oracz beat Sokolowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:2361.5%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
clears by 4.4pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1289 vs Oracz 1378
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 40% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 30% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski -3 · Oracz +2
Sokolowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 1.95 / Oracz 1.75
Signal prob.39% / 62%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13225718
Sokolowski1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 126 of 340
Down 0–1, comes back20% 41 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 124
Oracz1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 362 of 575
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it81% 282 of 347
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSokolowski4wins
AwayOracz6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowski50%2 of 4
AwayOracz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Sokolowski5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Sokolowski6Oracz4n = 10Sokolowski took 6 of 10
S4Sokolowski3Oracz4n = 7Oracz took 4 of 7
S5Sokolowski2Oracz3n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSokolowskiOraczS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.839.80.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 618 vs 854 / 155343.2%55%267 / 618 vs 854 / 1553Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczSokolowski 1.95/Oracz 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.5%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 02:00O. Sokolowski4811712992L. Oracz496111011113
LSep 30 · 02:10O. Sokolowski46511911102L. Oracz44115115123
LSep 29 · 17:20O. Sokolowski4091011101L. Oracz4311128123
WSep 29 · 01:30O. Sokolowski361411113L. Oracz2312560
WSep 28 · 19:55O. Sokolowski391312143L. Oracz331110120
WSep 25 · 22:35O. Sokolowski45611116113L. Oracz4611691192
LSep 25 · 15:00O. Sokolowski371091171L. Oracz4112117113
WSep 11 · 16:35O. Sokolowski48911611113L. Oracz4111311792
LSep 1 · 13:30O. Sokolowski1811070L. Oracz341112113
LSep 1 · 07:30O. Sokolowski4111581162L. Oracz44411117113
O. Sokolowski10
LOct 1 · 03:10O. Sokolowski1.953580M. Lebek1.751111113LOct 1 · 02:00L. Oracz1.766111011113O. Sokolowski1.9011712992LOct 1 · 01:10P. Kurek1.54861111113O. Sokolowski2.3511117532WOct 1 · 00:25O. Sokolowski1.65111011153A. Burkacki2.055129131WSep 30 · 22:50O. Sokolowski2.1511119133M. Lebek1.606911111LSep 30 · 22:00M. Jozefiak—116117113O. Sokolowski—31191162LSep 30 · 02:10O. Sokolowski2.10511911102L. Oracz1.67115115123WSep 30 · 00:35M. Koczyba1.61551191O. Sokolowski2.2011117113LSep 29 · 23:45J. Nowak1.911111113O. Sokolowski1.808790LSep 29 · 22:55O. Sokolowski2.631061141P. Gumulinski1.4412116113
L. Oracz10
LOct 1 · 03:35L. Oracz1.52111011692A. Burkacki2.37512811113WOct 1 · 02:00L. Oracz1.766111011113O. Sokolowski1.9011712992WOct 1 · 00:45L. Oracz2.05119115113M. Jozefiak1.7071171182LSep 30 · 23:35L. Oracz2.60811771M. Lebek1.4211611113LSep 30 · 22:25P. Kurek1.8011125113L. Oracz1.906101181WSep 30 · 21:35L. Oracz1.391111113A. Burkacki2.805420WSep 30 · 02:10O. Sokolowski2.10511911102L. Oracz1.67115115123LSep 30 · 01:25P. Gumulinski1.831111113L. Oracz1.835670WSep 29 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.8071080L. Oracz1.911112113WSep 29 · 22:35P. Slosarczyk3.50861181L. Oracz1.2811114113
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