TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Zhyrnov vs Volodymir Maksuta 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115911911611––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymir Maksuta to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Volodymir Maksuta below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Volodymir Maksuta at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 9–8 Volodymir Maksuta Volodymir Maksuta has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maksuta
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1655 vs Maksuta 1673
Maksuta
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 20% vs Maksuta 40%
Maksuta
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 60% vs Maksuta 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov +1 · Maksuta -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Maksuta) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksuta form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 1.833 / Maksuta 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maksuta)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13224963
Zhyrnov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Maksuta1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov5wins
AwayMaksuta5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov60%3 of 5
AwayMaksuta60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov5Maksuta5n = 10split evenly
S2Zhyrnov5Maksuta5n = 10split evenly
S3Zhyrnov4Maksuta6n = 10Maksuta took 6 of 10
S4Zhyrnov6Maksuta2n = 8Zhyrnov took 6 of 8
S5Zhyrnov2Maksuta3n = 5Maksuta took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovMaksutaZ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.740.6+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovMaksutaBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 767 vs 179 / 31150.2%57.6%385 / 767 vs 179 / 311Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksutaZhyrnov 1.83/Maksuta 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maksuta · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maksuta won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov4311611782V. Maksuta45811411113
LSep 10 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov52811131192V. Maksuta55119159113
LJul 30 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov32118581V. Maksuta4291111113
LJul 29 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov497111011102V. Maksuta52119128123
WJul 16 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov551191113113V. Maksuta52911131182
WJul 14 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov46116711113V. Maksuta4471111872
WJul 9 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov341112113V. Maksuta2131080
WJul 8 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov4071111113V. Maksuta28117371
LJun 18 · 21:50O. Zhyrnov153930V. Maksuta331111113
WMay 28 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov4181111113V. Maksuta34119861
O. Zhyrnov10
WOct 1 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.501111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.505840WSep 28 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.73911951O. Zhyrnov2.0011711113LSep 28 · 16:10A. Derevianko1.401313133O. Zhyrnov2.751111110LSep 28 · 14:40M. Mrykh1.571111113O. Zhyrnov2.257770LSep 28 · 12:40O. Strutinskiy1.301111912113O. Zhyrnov3.4018111462LSep 28 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.83811411113O. Zhyrnov1.8311611782WSep 27 · 11:30O. Zhyrnov1.8051113113O. Varlamov1.911141171WSep 27 · 09:30Y. Bondarenko1.831184101O. Zhyrnov1.8381111123WSep 27 · 07:30O. Blashkun2.10117841O. Zhyrnov1.6771111113WSep 27 · 06:30O. Zhyrnov1.441111113Y. Makovka2.632760
V. Maksuta10
LSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113WSep 28 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.8012711113E. Hrytsenko1.911011441LSep 28 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.9161111942O. Strutinskiy1.80117811113LSep 28 · 12:10V. Maksuta2.386116101A. Derevianko1.5311911123WSep 28 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.83811411113O. Zhyrnov1.8311611782WSep 24 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.6713111110113V. Merzlikin2.1015851272WSep 24 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.4441211113M. Tiutiunnyk2.631110621WSep 24 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.502970WSep 24 · 12:10V. Maksuta1.33791111113O. Blashkun3.2511117822WSep 24 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.911111113A. Zozulia1.806680
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