TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Mateusz Galus vs Szymon Radlo 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:59 and never touched: 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
117117118––––
H2H Mateusz Galus 27–32 Szymon Radlo Mateusz Galus has won 27 of their 59 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 16h before this match
Radlo beat Galus 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5956.8%Our read61.7%to break even at 1.62
short by 4.9pp61.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.62 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-32 in 59
Radlo
Wrong
gap of 5 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Galus 1597 vs Radlo 1561
Galus
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Galus 60% vs Radlo 80%
Radlo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Galus 40% vs Radlo 60%
Radlo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Galus -1 · Radlo +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Galus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Radlo form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.62 / Radlo 2.15
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Galus)-4.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224548
Galus1.62
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 131 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it99% 70 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it78% 98 of 125
Radlo2.15
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 171 of 342
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGalus4wins
AwayRadlo6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRadlo leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGalus80%4 of 5
AwayRadlo100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Galus5Radlo5n = 10split evenly
S2Galus7Radlo3n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S3Galus4Radlo6n = 10Radlo took 6 of 10
S4Galus5Radlo4n = 9Galus took 5 of 9
S5Galus0Radlo3n = 3Radlo took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGalusRadloG − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.740.6+1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusRadloBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 670 vs 396 / 80052.8%49.5%354 / 670 vs 396 / 800Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GalusGalus 1.62/Radlo 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 13:30M. Galus34812861S. Radlo43111011113
LSep 30 · 07:00M. Galus366119101S. Radlo4211811123
WSep 23 · 09:30M. Galus4113611113S. Radlo361111771
WSep 17 · 07:30M. Galus331111113S. Radlo199460
WSep 10 · 08:30M. Galus4614912113S. Radlo3712111041
WAug 31 · 08:30M. Galus4211119113S. Radlo22251141
LAug 30 · 17:05M. Galus46811611102S. Radlo49117118123
LAug 27 · 11:30M. Galus356111261S. Radlo45111310113
LAug 25 · 11:30M. Galus4914118792S. Radlo541291111113
LAug 20 · 05:30M. Galus55911714142S. Radlo591191112163
M. Galus10
WOct 1 · 06:30M. Galus1.651111113D. Stapor2.103880LSep 30 · 13:30S. Radlo2.20111011113M. Galus1.60812861WSep 30 · 11:30M. Galus1.3891311113J. Masternak2.801111461WSep 30 · 09:30B. Molka2.1010101181M. Galus1.6512125113WSep 30 · 08:30M. Galus1.201111113J. Chojnacki3.605440LSep 30 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.401115814123M. Galus1.506131116102LSep 30 · 07:00M. Galus1.626119101S. Radlo2.0211811123LSep 24 · 12:30M. Galus1.399111161B. Fraczek2.8011135113LSep 24 · 12:00J. Masternak3.081211143M. Galus1.33108120LSep 24 · 10:30M. Galus2.34521181P. Gola1.5411118113
S. Radlo10
LOct 1 · 06:00J. Masternak2.20131114123S. Radlo1.5815912101WSep 30 · 13:30S. Radlo2.20111011113M. Galus1.60812861LSep 30 · 12:00S. Radlo2.52711661J. Chojnacki1.4711611113WSep 30 · 10:00S. Wloszek2.059980S. Radlo1.661111113WSep 30 · 08:00B. Molka1.651071171S. Radlo2.1012116113WSep 30 · 07:00M. Galus1.626119101S. Radlo2.0211811123LSep 30 · 06:00S. Radlo1.721118111692J. Masternak2.0113161314113LSep 29 · 13:00D. Stapor1.911315115113S. Radlo1.80151351192WSep 29 · 11:00S. Radlo1.311311811123J. Chojnacki3.201191113102WSep 29 · 09:30S. Radlo2.23161211113D. Stapor1.591810791
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