TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Wiekiera Arkadiusz vs Denys Kovtanyuk 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811118113––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeWiekiera Arkadiusz to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
117811118113––
H2H Wiekiera Arkadiusz 2–0 Denys Kovtanyuk Denys Kovtanyuk has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2263.7%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
clears by 1.2pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Arkadiusz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Arkadiusz 1494 vs Kovtanyuk 1376
Arkadiusz
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Arkadiusz 40% vs Kovtanyuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Arkadiusz 60% vs Kovtanyuk 40%
Arkadiusz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Arkadiusz +2 · Kovtanyuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Arkadiusz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Arkadiusz form (40%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsArkadiusz 1.60 / Kovtanyuk 2.21
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Arkadiusz)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13224411
Arkadiusz1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 117 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it78% 86 of 110
Kovtanyuk2.21
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 20 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeArkadiusz2wins
AwayKovtanyuk0wins
Arkadiusz leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricArkadiuszKovtanyukA − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match43.036.5+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricArkadiuszKovtanyukBasisWin rate · lifetime545 / 980 vs 64 / 20355.6%31.5%545 / 980 vs 64 / 203Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match41.335.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ArkadiuszArkadiusz 1.60/Kovtanyuk 2.21
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Arkadiusz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Arkadiusz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 29 · 18:00W. Arkadiusz46101113123D. Kovtanyuk3712411101
WSep 28 · 14:00W. Arkadiusz4011116123D. Kovtanyuk367811101
W. Arkadiusz10
WSep 30 · 18:30K. Patryk1.9581110101W. Arkadiusz1.7411412123WSep 30 · 17:30W. Arkadiusz1.6112813113K. Kos2.2010111171LSep 30 · 16:30P. Kedzierski3.70911158113W. Arkadiusz1.25116131192LSep 30 · 16:00W. Arkadiusz2.109101161L. Buklat1.6511125113LSep 29 · 22:40W. Arkadiusz1.721512971M. Szostak2.02171011113LSep 29 · 20:00K. Patryk2.1014147113W. Arkadiusz1.6512121141WSep 29 · 19:00W. Arkadiusz1.60118146113M. Szostak2.10811121192WSep 29 · 18:00W. Arkadiusz1.55101113123D. Kovtanyuk2.3012411101WSep 29 · 16:30W. Arkadiusz1.68591111113J. Caban2.0511119932WSep 29 · 14:30W. Arkadiusz1.75118127113P. Kamil1.98511101192
D. Kovtanyuk10
WSep 30 · 19:30K. Kos1.49912121172D. Kovtanyuk2.451114107113WSep 30 · 18:00P. Kedzierski2.35611641D. Kovtanyuk1.5411911113LSep 30 · 15:30L. Buklat1.3011111013113D. Kovtanyuk3.2553121582LSep 30 · 14:00K. Patryk1.451111113D. Kovtanyuk2.589840LSep 29 · 22:10D. Kovtanyuk2.05510110J. Caban1.681112133WSep 29 · 20:30J. Caban1.684590D. Kovtanyuk2.051111113LSep 29 · 19:30P. Kamil1.6011711123D. Kovtanyuk2.203119101LSep 29 · 18:00W. Arkadiusz1.55101113123D. Kovtanyuk2.3012411101LSep 29 · 15:30M. Szostak1.951111113D. Kovtanyuk1.777730WSep 29 · 14:00K. Patryk1.44118761D. Kovtanyuk2.6041111113
Upcoming Matches
W. Arkadiusz
Nothing scheduled
D. Kovtanyuk
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