TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Wiekiera Arkadiusz vs Lukasz Buklat 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012115611––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:46 and never touched: 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeLukasz Buklat to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
9111012115611––
H2H Wiekiera Arkadiusz 40–44 Lukasz Buklat Wiekiera Arkadiusz has won 40 of their 84 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4659.6%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 1.0pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Buklat
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-44 in 84
Buklat
Correct
gap of 4 in 84, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Arkadiusz 1498 vs Buklat 1609
Buklat
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Arkadiusz 60% vs Buklat 80%
Buklat
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Arkadiusz 50% vs Buklat 80%
Buklat
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Arkadiusz -2 · Buklat +4
Buklat
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Buklat) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buklat form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsArkadiusz 2.10 / Buklat 1.65
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Buklat)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13219779
Arkadiusz2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 50 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Buklat1.65
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 84 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it100% 43 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it81% 63 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeArkadiusz3wins
AwayBuklat7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBuklat leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeArkadiusz75%3 of 4
AwayBuklat100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Arkadiusz4Buklat6n = 10Buklat took 6 of 10
S2Arkadiusz6Buklat4n = 10Arkadiusz took 6 of 10
S3Arkadiusz5Buklat5n = 10split evenly
S4Arkadiusz3Buklat5n = 8Buklat took 5 of 8
S5Arkadiusz0Buklat3n = 3Buklat took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricArkadiuszBuklatA − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.241.5−2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricArkadiuszBuklatBasisWin rate · lifetime544 / 978 vs 270 / 45755.6%59.1%544 / 978 vs 270 / 457Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match41.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BuklatArkadiusz 2.10/Buklat 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.6%
Buklat · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Buklat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 20:30W. Arkadiusz4241112692L. Buklat491161011113
LSep 27 · 17:05W. Arkadiusz34711791L. Buklat4111811113
LSep 14 · 15:30W. Arkadiusz30116851L. Buklat4181111113
WSep 7 · 15:30W. Arkadiusz341111123L. Buklat2569100
WSep 2 · 15:30W. Arkadiusz4411119133L. Buklat366811111
LAug 31 · 14:30W. Arkadiusz561211111392L. Buklat57149815113
LAug 30 · 07:35W. Arkadiusz4291111111L. Buklat4411713133
LAug 26 · 21:00W. Arkadiusz4779141162L. Buklat541111129113
WAug 24 · 17:00W. Arkadiusz4211911113L. Buklat35911871
LAug 17 · 15:30W. Arkadiusz217770L. Buklat331111113
W. Arkadiusz10
LSep 30 · 16:30P. Kedzierski3.70911158113W. Arkadiusz1.25116131192LSep 29 · 22:40W. Arkadiusz1.721512971M. Szostak2.02171011113LSep 29 · 20:00K. Patryk2.1014147113W. Arkadiusz1.6512121141WSep 29 · 19:00W. Arkadiusz1.60118146113M. Szostak2.10811121192WSep 29 · 18:00W. Arkadiusz1.55101113123D. Kovtanyuk2.3012411101WSep 29 · 16:30W. Arkadiusz1.68591111113J. Caban2.0511119932WSep 29 · 14:30W. Arkadiusz1.75118127113P. Kamil1.98511101192LSep 28 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.8571371282P. Kamil1.8511111110113LSep 28 · 20:30L. Buklat1.901161011113W. Arkadiusz1.8041112692LSep 28 · 19:30K. Patryk1.8711911113W. Arkadiusz1.84811891
L. Buklat10
WSep 30 · 15:30L. Buklat1.3011111013113D. Kovtanyuk3.2553121582WSep 28 · 22:40K. Patryk2.1011101241L. Buklat1.6581214113WSep 28 · 20:30L. Buklat1.901161011113W. Arkadiusz1.8041112692WSep 28 · 18:30D. Kovtanyuk3.0051114131L. Buklat1.3311716153LSep 28 · 17:30L. Buklat1.831081171K. Patryk1.8712116113WSep 28 · 16:30P. Kamil2.1595111192L. Buklat1.62111198113LSep 28 · 16:00L. Buklat1.68118117162S. Toborek2.08711711183WSep 27 · 23:35L. Buklat1.65811712113P. Kamil2.10116111092WSep 27 · 22:05L. Buklat1.331111113S. Toborek3.109750WSep 27 · 20:05J. Komorowicz3.2579111792L. Buklat1.301111515113
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