TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukasz Buklat vs Denys Kovtanyuk 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11511310121315118
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:26 and never touched: 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeLukasz Buklat to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
11511310121315118
H2H Lukasz Buklat 4–1 Denys Kovtanyuk Denys Kovtanyuk has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2675.8%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 1.1pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (71%)
Buklat
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Buklat
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Buklat 1604 vs Kovtanyuk 1357
Buklat
Correct
both rated, 247 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Buklat 80% vs Kovtanyuk 20%
Buklat
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Buklat 80% vs Kovtanyuk 30%
Buklat
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Buklat +3 · Kovtanyuk -2
Buklat
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Buklat) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovtanyuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBuklat 1.30 / Kovtanyuk 3.25
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Buklat)-1.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13218645
Buklat1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 84 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it100% 43 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it81% 63 of 78
Kovtanyuk3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 20 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBuklat4wins
AwayKovtanyuk1wins
Buklat leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBuklat100%4 of 4
AwayKovtanyukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Buklat4Kovtanyuk1n = 5Buklat took 4 of 5
S2Buklat4Kovtanyuk1n = 5Buklat took 4 of 5
S3Buklat2Kovtanyuk3n = 5Kovtanyuk took 3 of 5
S4Buklat3Kovtanyuk1n = 4Buklat took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBuklatKovtanyukB − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match42.437.8+4.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuklatKovtanyukBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 461 vs 62 / 20059%31%272 / 461 vs 62 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.335.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BuklatBuklat 1.30/Kovtanyuk 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Buklat · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Buklat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 28 · 18:30L. Buklat4911716153D. Kovtanyuk4351114131
WSep 26 · 14:45L. Buklat46111110143D. Kovtanyuk378512121
LSep 26 · 10:05L. Buklat377119101D. Kovtanyuk4011611123
WSep 24 · 16:30L. Buklat4311156113D. Kovtanyuk429131191
WSep 21 · 20:00L. Buklat371113133D. Kovtanyuk27511110
L. Buklat10
WSep 30 · 16:00W. Arkadiusz2.109101161L. Buklat1.6511125113WSep 28 · 22:40K. Patryk2.1011101241L. Buklat1.6581214113WSep 28 · 20:30L. Buklat1.901161011113W. Arkadiusz1.8041112692WSep 28 · 18:30D. Kovtanyuk3.0051114131L. Buklat1.3311716153LSep 28 · 17:30L. Buklat1.831081171K. Patryk1.8712116113WSep 28 · 16:30P. Kamil2.1595111192L. Buklat1.62111198113LSep 28 · 16:00L. Buklat1.68118117162S. Toborek2.08711711183WSep 27 · 23:35L. Buklat1.65811712113P. Kamil2.10116111092WSep 27 · 22:05L. Buklat1.331111113S. Toborek3.109750WSep 27 · 20:05J. Komorowicz3.2579111792L. Buklat1.301111515113
D. Kovtanyuk10
LSep 30 · 14:00K. Patryk1.451111113D. Kovtanyuk2.589840LSep 29 · 22:10D. Kovtanyuk2.05510110J. Caban1.681112133WSep 29 · 20:30J. Caban1.684590D. Kovtanyuk2.051111113LSep 29 · 19:30P. Kamil1.6011711123D. Kovtanyuk2.203119101LSep 29 · 18:00W. Arkadiusz1.55101113123D. Kovtanyuk2.3012411101LSep 29 · 15:30M. Szostak1.951111113D. Kovtanyuk1.777730WSep 29 · 14:00K. Patryk1.44118761D. Kovtanyuk2.6041111113WSep 28 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk—11612113S. Toborek—9111051LSep 28 · 20:00D. Kovtanyuk2.501311131262P. Kamil1.471191514113LSep 28 · 18:30D. Kovtanyuk3.0051114131L. Buklat1.3311716153
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