TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Kiejda Patryk vs Denys Kovtanyuk 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118114––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched: 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeKiejda Patryk to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
119118114––––
H2H Kiejda Patryk 3–3 Denys Kovtanyuk Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5865.6%Our read69.0%to break even at 1.45
short by 3.4pp69.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.45 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Patryk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Patryk 1433 vs Kovtanyuk 1369
Patryk
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Patryk 40% vs Kovtanyuk 20%
Patryk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Patryk 50% vs Kovtanyuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Patryk -1 · Kovtanyuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Patryk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovtanyuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (39%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPatryk 1.45 / Kovtanyuk 2.58
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Patryk)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13219663
Patryk1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite57% won 116 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it74% 89 of 120
Kovtanyuk2.58
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 20 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePatryk3wins
AwayKovtanyuk3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePatryk75%3 of 4
AwayKovtanyukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Patryk4Kovtanyuk2n = 6Patryk took 4 of 6
S2Patryk3Kovtanyuk3n = 6split evenly
S3Patryk3Kovtanyuk3n = 6split evenly
S4Patryk3Kovtanyuk2n = 5Patryk took 3 of 5
S5Patryk1Kovtanyuk2n = 3Kovtanyuk took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPatrykKovtanyukP − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.333.7+6.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPatrykKovtanyukBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 376 vs 62 / 19955.6%31.2%209 / 376 vs 62 / 199Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.435.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PatrykPatryk 1.45/Kovtanyuk 2.58
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.6%
Patryk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Patryk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 29 · 14:00K. Patryk32118761D. Kovtanyuk3741111113
WSep 28 · 15:00K. Patryk49111188113D. Kovtanyuk4269111152
LSep 24 · 18:00K. Patryk50911101192D. Kovtanyuk48118126113
WSep 22 · 21:00K. Patryk3611311113D. Kovtanyuk20111531
WSep 21 · 21:30K. Patryk331111113D. Kovtanyuk114250
LSep 21 · 14:00K. Patryk4278111152D. Kovtanyuk44111147113
K. Patryk10
LSep 29 · 21:40K. Patryk—56110P. Kamil—1111133WSep 29 · 20:00K. Patryk2.1014147113W. Arkadiusz1.6512121141LSep 29 · 18:30K. Patryk1.30116871J. Caban3.3081111113LSep 29 · 17:00K. Patryk1.47118141182M. Szostak2.50911163113WSep 29 · 15:00K. Patryk1.6611117113P. Kamil2.10691151LSep 29 · 14:00K. Patryk1.44118761D. Kovtanyuk2.6041111113LSep 28 · 22:40K. Patryk2.1011101241L. Buklat1.6581214113WSep 28 · 21:00S. Toborek3.007121101K. Patryk1.35111011123WSep 28 · 19:30K. Patryk1.8711911113W. Arkadiusz1.84811891WSep 28 · 17:30L. Buklat1.831081171K. Patryk1.8712116113
D. Kovtanyuk10
LSep 30 · 15:30L. Buklat1.3011111013113D. Kovtanyuk3.2553121582LSep 29 · 22:10D. Kovtanyuk2.05510110J. Caban1.681112133WSep 29 · 20:30J. Caban1.684590D. Kovtanyuk2.051111113LSep 29 · 19:30P. Kamil1.6011711123D. Kovtanyuk2.203119101LSep 29 · 18:00W. Arkadiusz1.55101113123D. Kovtanyuk2.3012411101LSep 29 · 15:30M. Szostak1.951111113D. Kovtanyuk1.777730WSep 29 · 14:00K. Patryk1.44118761D. Kovtanyuk2.6041111113WSep 28 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk—11612113S. Toborek—9111051LSep 28 · 20:00D. Kovtanyuk2.501311131262P. Kamil1.471191514113LSep 28 · 18:30D. Kovtanyuk3.0051114131L. Buklat1.3311716153
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