TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Fedoryshyn vs Ruslan Ivanov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012116511811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Fedoryshyn above · Ruslan Ivanov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fedoryshyn 12–10 Ruslan Ivanov Ruslan Ivanov has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2954.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fedoryshyn 1895 vs Ivanov 1919
Ivanov
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fedoryshyn 80% vs Ivanov 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fedoryshyn 70% vs Ivanov 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fedoryshyn +3 · Ivanov +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Ivanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivanov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFedoryshyn 1.727 / Ivanov 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ivanov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13224106
Fedoryshyn1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 185 of 273
Up 2–0, closes it97% 111 of 114
Up 1–0, closes it83% 153 of 184
Ivanov2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog52% won 16 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back35% 6 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFedoryshyn5wins
AwayIvanov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFedoryshyn62.5%5 of 8
AwayIvanovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fedoryshyn8Ivanov2n = 10Fedoryshyn took 8 of 10
S2Fedoryshyn5Ivanov5n = 10split evenly
S3Fedoryshyn4Ivanov6n = 10Ivanov took 6 of 10
S4Fedoryshyn4Ivanov3n = 7Fedoryshyn took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFedoryshynIvanovF − IBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.336.9+0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFedoryshynIvanovBasisWin rate · lifetime544 / 825 vs 78 / 11565.9%67.8%544 / 825 vs 78 / 115Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovFedoryshyn 1.73/Ivanov 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ivanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 15:30I. Fedoryshyn4211911113R. Ivanov30811651
LSep 25 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn144820R. Ivanov331111113
WSep 24 · 13:30I. Fedoryshyn48111115113R. Ivanov429131371
LSep 11 · 13:30I. Fedoryshyn418118141R. Ivanov4711911163
WSep 10 · 17:00I. Fedoryshyn331111113R. Ivanov217860
LSep 10 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn4711118892R. Ivanov45481111113
LAug 28 · 17:00I. Fedoryshyn4314571162R. Ivanov511211116113
WAug 28 · 12:00I. Fedoryshyn3611113113R. Ivanov37891191
WAug 27 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn331111113R. Ivanov218940
LAug 21 · 17:22I. Fedoryshyn36119791R. Ivanov4291111113
I. Fedoryshyn10
WOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141LOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381WOct 1 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.441112123A. Lushchyk2.63710100WSep 29 · 16:59S. Chuhai2.254811101I. Fedoryshyn1.5711117123WSep 29 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn1.4491112113S. Chuhai2.631151051LSep 29 · 15:00A. Kasyanov2.001111113I. Fedoryshyn1.739920WSep 29 · 14:00M. Baday1.73111191072I. Fedoryshyn2.00671112113WSep 29 · 12:30A. Lushchyk2.639111421I. Fedoryshyn1.4411916113WSep 25 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.0011611113M. Baday1.73611881LSep 25 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn1.57111050S. Chuhai2.251312113
R. Ivanov10
WOct 1 · 14:30A. Lushchyk3.757117141R. Ivanov1.2511711163WOct 1 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.7511761192R. Ivanov1.25911119113WSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651WSep 25 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.801111113M. Baday1.914960LSep 25 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.91811651I. Fedoryshyn1.8011911113WSep 25 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.804820R. Ivanov1.911111113LSep 25 · 13:30M. Baday1.917111011123R. Ivanov1.80119126102WSep 25 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.406890R. Ivanov1.301111113LSep 24 · 17:38S. Chuhai4.00412613113R. Ivanov1.221110111192WSep 24 · 16:30M. Baday1.91612611102R. Ivanov1.801110115123
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